Last autumn, we examined a number of scenarios to see how CAP would affect farmers with different enterprises.

We went all the way back to 2005, looking at people who gained very high initial payments, moderate ones, and lower-value entitlements under decoupling.

We showed how some suckler farmers lost out; not because they were farming very extensively, but because they were selling young ‘unpunched’ cattle rather than drawing down the premia on them.

And we showed how these farmers, who nursed a genuine and perhaps justified grievance over the Fischler decoupling reforms, could actually have lost out under the Ciolos package in 2014.

Very high payment recipient

Tommy Kelly was our intensive cattle finisher on 50ha. He generated massive payments during the reference years of 2000-2002, gaining €46,600 in 2005, the first year of decoupled payments. This amounted to over €900/ha. In 2021, despite the cuts imposed by Ciolos, he still got €34,650 (€693/ha).

In 2023, the Department of Agriculture’s CAP calculator shows a total payment, BISS, CRISS and eco schemes included, of €24,205. It’s a loss of just over €10,000 in a single swoop. The per-hectare payment drops from €693 to €484.

And then, as we can see in the table, convergence works its magic. In each of the following three years, €1,626.50 is taken from Tommy’s payment pot. By 2026, his payment has been cut to €19,323. It’s still higher than the average payment, but he has lost a whopping €15,327 from his 2022 payment. It’s a cut of 44%, one that is bound to affect Tommy’s ability to pay top dollar for store cattle in the marts of 2026.

High entitlement suckler farmer

Paddy Murphy was calving 50 cows on 52ha, and claiming all the subsidies available on all his stock. Paddy generated an initial payment of €29,018 (€558/ha). In 2021, this was still a very decent €394.50/ha – way above the national average.

So what is happening Paddy’s payments? Next year will see his payment fall to €17,025. By 2026, it will have shrunk to €15,461. That’s an overall cut of €5,053, a 25% cut in his payment. Remember, some farmers like Paddy, with 50 suckler cows, are making less than the average wage, direct payments included. In a bad year, they make less than the minimum wage.

Johnny O’Leary was the big loser under Fischler. Despite having an identical farm profile to his neighbour Paddy Murphy, he had a much lower payment in 2005, because he sold his young cattle without drawing the subsidies on them. In 2004, his payment was €16,180 (€311/ha), little more than half Paddy’s payment. The Ciolos reforms were meant to help Johnny, yet his current payment is only €15,335 (€295/ha). He actually lost money under Ciolos.

In 2023, he loses again, with his total payment cut by more than €1,000 to €14,326. Convergence continues to snip a further €30 a year until 2026, leaving a payment of €13,933 in 2026. Johnny seems to always lose.

Average farmer

Peter O’Brien was the bang average farmer. With 32ha, some of it commonage, 14 suckler cows and 100 ewes, he was doing as much as anyone could in the circumstances. Peter initially gained €7,356, which works out at €239/ha. In 2021, this had edged up to €7,456, with any gains from the Ciolos reforms mostly lost to small budgetary cuts that affected almost all farmers.

The good news for Peter is that he will gain more than €100 this time round. In 2023, he will receive €8,213, an increase of over 10% in his overall payment.

That’s the end of his gains, though. Each year, his payment will go up due to convergence, but only by €4.

So even though convergence is hammering Tommy Kelly and Paddy Murphy, our average farmer isn’t even gaining the price of a pint. It’s enough to buy about six kilos of Sulfacan. You could fertilise the lawn with it, or fill the lawnmower with petrol, I suppose.

How to use the calculator

You need three things to use the Department of Agriculture’s calculator. Firstly, you need the number of entitlements you hold. Secondly, you need the number of eligible hectares you are applying on (remember we’re at all times talking about next year not this year). Thirdly, you need the value of your entitlements. The value required is the gross value of the current basic payment plus greening. If you have entitlements with differing values, and many people do, the calculator allows for that. Having entered those three pieces of information, you press the button and find out how your CAP payment will change from next year.