Brazil’s voters go to the polls again this coming Sunday in the presidential election run-off between the incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro and his challenger and previous president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

During the Bolsonaro presidency, clearance of the Amazon rainforest has increased dramatically from 6,947km2 in 2017 to 13,038km2 in 2021. By 2022, it had reached 9,211km2 up to 14 October, according to Brazil’s Space Institute (INPE) data.

The Irish, and indeed EU farmer, interest in the election is driven by the potential impact on ratification of the Mercosur trade deal, agreed in 2019.

Restoration

Speaking to the Irish Farmers Journal at the time, then-Agriculture Commissioner Phil Hogan was adamant that the deal was contingent not only on cessation of rainforest clearance but restoration.

This has been picked up subsequently by the European Parliament, as well as several member states.

However, a view is developing in Brussels that despite being engaged in dubious activities, if Lula da Silva wins, he would be more active in protection of the rainforest and, as a result, create an opportunity to progress Mercosur ratification.

It is also believed that EU officials have been exploring how ratification could be progressed, including removing at least some of the deal from requiring member state approval.

The deal has been met with huge opposition from EU farm organisations and environmental NGOs, and the Bolsonaro presidency has meant the deal has effectively been on ice for over three years. A new president in Brazil would reopen the ratification process.