Over the course of the past three weeks, diesel prices have been on the rise, increasing by up to 22c/l.

For those keeping up to date with brent crude prices, such increases certainly wouldn’t be expected, especially with the commodity recently hitting a three-month low.

However, it is the sustained weakening of the euro versus the dollar that is continuing to hamper pricing.

The euro-dollar exchange rate dropped below parity on 22 August, amidst a deteriorating economic outlook in Europe. This represents a 12.52% year-to-date decline as inflation in Europe rises to record levels.

How does this affect our diesel bill?

Oil is traded in dollars, meaning currency fluctuations can have a huge impact on Irish pricing. Last month, the value of €1 fell below that of US$1 for the first time since 2002, 20 years ago. With €1 capable of buying up to $1.19 just one year ago, this drop represents a significant fall for the currency in a relatively short space of time.

Despite crude oil prices running at a three-month low, fuel prices have gone the opposite direction.

Meanwhile, fuel prices have only gone one way over the past three weeks, and that’s upwards.

As we went to press this week, prices of 1.36c/l to 1.39c/l (VAT inclusive) were being quoted for marked gas oil (MGO), more commonly known as green diesel.

This means green diesel has risen in price by 18-22c/l on the lows of 1.17-1.20c/l (VAT inclusive) three weeks ago.

This price had taken into account a drop in price of 6c/l on Tuesday evening, which suppliers noted was the first drop in price seen in three weeks.

As always, suppliers are saying that those purchasing higher quantities will buy green diesel several c/litre cheaper, while cash payment versus credit will also have a similar impact on pricing.

All outlined that supply is continuing to run at normal levels. Suppliers continue to state there is no pattern in pricing for an outlook, while the lasting unrest in Ukraine, political decisions and the declining value of the euro against the dollar are contributing to the continued uncertainty in fuel pricing.

Crude oil prices

International oil markets remain volatile. On Tuesday evening, Brent crude was trading between $97 to $98/barrel. This represents its largest dip since 16 August when it reached a short-lived three-month low, trading between $92 to $93/barrel for a period.

Since then, prices have been steadily on the climb, reaching between $102 to $103/barrel earlier this week.