It has been a bruising few days for the British government in the aftermath of a mini budget that grabbed the headlines for reducing the higher rate of income tax and committing the UK to unprecedented borrowing.

While this was coming to a head at the start of the Conservative Party conference, Minister of State in the Northern Ireland Office and hard line Brexit advocate Steve Baker used a conference event to apologise to the EU and Ireland for his and colleagues approach to Irish and EU interests around the UK withdrawal from the EU.

This change in tone was followed on Monday by the announcement that technical discussions between the EU and UK, which had been suspended since February would resume.

This is the forum where solutions to what might seem the intractable problem between reconciling the need to protect the EU single market and the integrity of the UK including Northern Ireland, will be found.

Farmers need a solution

While governments and institutions may wrestle with political principles, it is farmers either side of the Irish border that remain exposed if the UK – EU relationship collapses to the point where tariffs on trade are introduced.

The cost to Irish agri food exports would be in the region of €1bn, while one third of Northern Irish dairy production would no longer be viable to export south for processing and the same would apply to lambs.

As this outcome would be so horrendous, it is probably the best reason why negotiators and political leadership will work to make sure it doesn’t happen.

Most exposed of all is the Irish beef sector, where full tariffs would mean a cost of €750m and inevitably collapse the trade.

Despite the best efforts to diversify markets, including allocating €100m of the Brexit Adjustment Reserve (BAR) fund to processors with this in mind, the reality is that beef exports to the UK increased to 50% of the total for the first half of 2022.

Where the solution can be found

The Northern Ireland Protocol, which is a consequence of Brexit, is particularly unpalatable to people who most value being part of the Union in Northern Ireland.

For the EU, protection of the single market is sacred and nothing can be allowed enter it from outside without being subject to full EU border controls.

This can be easily managed at ports like Rotterdam, where 20t containers of the same product are unloaded and inspections carried out that clear huge volumes of product to travel anywhere in the EU on release.

This model doesn’t work for a supermarket servicing its Northern Ireland stores from a distribution centre in Britain, where it loads small volumes of multiple products on a truck travelling to Northern Ireland.

It similarly frustrates a gardener in Northern Ireland who wants to source plants in Britain. Ironically, for the larger businesses handling large volumes of trade, the protocol as it is currently constructed works well.

They have adapted to the bureaucracy by dealing in full container loads, as is the case with meat factories bringing product in from Britain for processing.

Risk-based controls

The solution to the ongoing impasse will be in the form of the EU having to accept risk-based (though still less than perfect) controls on product entering Northern Ireland from Britain.

Similarly, the UK will have to accept that there will be EU border controls enforced on internal UK trade between Britain and Northern Ireland.

The formula will be close to elimination of controls on product destined for internal Northern Ireland trade only while maintaining full controls on product either destined for the Republic of Ireland or at risk of entering the Republic of Ireland.

By way of example, retail packs of meat or vegetables within supermarket distribution centres can be assumed for retail sale only in stores in Northern Ireland.

However a pallet of Australian or New Zealand beef that entered the UK under the new trade deals, will have to be subject to full border controls even if it is being transported to a wholesaler in Northern Ireland from Britain.

There is negligible risk of supermarket packs transiting to the Republic of Ireland except for northerners stocking up at ASDA in Strabane on their way to a holiday home in Donegal, and this is tolerable.

However, there is every risk that meat from a wholesaler could be traded across the border, which would require full controls.

This landing zone is not new information. What is required is the political incentive to make it happen, and that is why the changed tone from Steve Baker is to be welcomed, as is the positive reponse from the EU.