The IFA has proposed a three-step plan to deal with the new trading relationship with Britain that will come into effect from 1 January.

It outlines a series of proposals to address the impact that up to €1.5bn of tariffs would have on the €5.5bn of agri-food exports from Ireland to Britain.

They also include comparison with the level of EU supports put in place to support exporters to Russia following the trade embargo imposed in 2014.

The IFA references a range of studies from Copenhagen Economics, Teagasc, the Government’s own action plan, London School of Economics and the Central Bank/ESRI to highlight the impact on Irish agriculture.

Step one

The best-case scenario planned for (though at this stage least likely) is securing a deal that not only avoids all tariffs and quotas but locks the UK into maintaining standards on food safety, animal health and the environment. It also locks the UK into not undercutting EU market values with cheap imports and have minimal checks to ensure the free flow of goods with green lanes at UK ports to facilitate uninterrupted travel for Irish goods in transit to the continent.

Step two

This deals with preparing the EU market for either a limited or no deal relationship between the EU and UK after 1 January.

Here, the IFA calls for the closure of the EU to third-country imports for beef and dairy, including the current 250,000t of beef that is imported annually from South America.

It also recommends that limits on State Aid assistance be suspended as they were during the COVID-19 outbreak, to allow the Irish Government maximum flexibility to intervene.

Step three

This focuses on farmer support measures needed in the event of a minimal or no-deal to come into effect after 1 January. This focuses on getting access to, and scaling up of the €5bn Brexit reserve fund created by the EU in the seven-year budget agreed in July.

The IFA says Irish farmers need priority access given their level of exposure, and facilitation of structural change in the Irish industry to reflect the new circumstances.

It points out that Brexit will affect EU food exports eight times more than the Russian embargo

Exposure to sterling volatility across all sectors of agriculture exposed to the British market is identified as a priority for support.

The IFA draws a comparison between the potential impact of Brexit and the experience of EU agriculture in the aftermath of the Russian trade embargo in 2014. It points out that Brexit will affect EU food exports eight times more than the Russian embargo and, in the case of Ireland, the exposure to the UK is 60 times more than it was to Russia in 2014.

Comment

German cars entering the UK with a no-deal Brexit will pay a 10% tariff, increasing the cost of a €50,000 Mercedes to €55,000.

This would be an unwelcome but bearable cost, compared to the impact on a product like Irish beef trimmings where tariffs of £2.53/kg (€2.78/kg) plus 12% of the value would double its cost on the British market.

That would effectively close the market and the IFA plan provides an outline of the measures necessary to offset the impact.

The requests are ambitious but they will be necessary, particularly in a no-deal scenario.

The big challenge now for the IFA is to make sure these are understood, not just by the Irish Government, but by the EU institutions as well.