Did anyone see that coming? The scale of Sinn Féin’s vote is astonishing. Only five of its 42 candidates failed to be elected. Everywhere the party ran two candidates – Louth, Donegal, Cavan-Monaghan, and Dublin Mid-West – it won two seats. It could easily have won second seats in Wexford, Tipperary and all across Dublin. The combined surplus of Sinn Féin candidates was over 120,000 votes; more than Labour, and 80% of the Green Party’s vote.

So was this tsunami a freak wave or the shape of things to come? We won’t know for some time, but for now we are left with this strange conundrum where three parties have practically the same number of TDs. Fianna Fáil and Fianna Gael are both clearly apprehensive about coalescing with Sinn Féin, leaving the other to regroup in opposition.

They also fear putting Sinn Féin into opposition, from where they could grow to be the dominant force in Irish politics for a generation.

It reminds me of the riddle of the fox, the hen and the grain.

This week’s cartoon depicts a dancehall setting. With Riverdance about to celebrate it’s 25th anniversary, perhaps that should be the inspiration.

If Sinn Féin fails to find a partner, there is the option for a broad coalition – a line dance rather than a waltz. Labour, the Green Party, the Social Democrats (SD), Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have 96 seats between them. They account for over 1.25m first preference votes combined, over 57% of the total. With parties of the left in such a rainbow government, the change people called for would be delivered.

Talent

And there would be real depth of talent – Micheál Martin for Taoiseach, Roisín Shortall in Health, Eamon Ryan in Environment, Brendan Howlin in Housing, Paschal Donohoe, Catherine Martin, Michael McGrath, Simon Coveney, Catherine Murphy, Sean Sherlock ...

Still, the most likely government is Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil with the Green Party and/or another party of the left.

While most political commentators focus on who becomes Taoiseach, farmers will be watching the identity of the next Minister for Agriculture. There might be a temptation for Fianna Fáil to leave the job to Sinn Féin.

That would offer deniability in relation to divisive issues such as convergence, carbon tax, and live exports.

However, that might backfire. Farmers, especially those who voted for the likes of Jackie Cahill, John McGuinness and Barry Cowen, will expect someone supportive of productive family farming as minister, particularly if Eamon Ryan is Minister for the Environment.