During a webinar looking at fertiliser prices on Monday night, the IFA’s Francie Gorman said that he might have been able to cope with the hike in prices in 2005, but successive and deep cuts to direct payments have taken the safety net away from productive farmers.

He’s right. That is not moralising on the CAP, it’s simply a statement of fact.

Low-cost extensive systems are going to be affected by rises in the cost base of production, but not to the same extent.

This is the “direction of travel” some people have been hoping for, where input prices force intensity down.

Farmers have no more ability to affect the price they get paid for their produce than they do to negotiate fertiliser prices downwards.

Millions of European food producers are caught in a pincer, buying and selling through co-ops and merchants and processors, but ultimately buying and selling to a handful of huge players.

On the input side, that’s the multinational fertiliser and chemical and medicine producers.

Globally, the answer has been scale at farm level

On the sales sides, it’s Tesco, Lidl, Aldi, Musgrave’s and Dunnes. Internationally, it’s Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrison’s in the UK, Carrefour in France and Walmart in the US. It’s still just a handful of players, and it’s farmers who are being played.

Globally, the answer has been scale at farm level, resulting in the family farm being replaced as the model of production by the giant feedlot.

And now, without the safety net of production-linked supports, farmers are potentially exposed to massive losses this year. What if we have a drought like in 2018, and grain growers end up with 1.5t/ac.

Brussels must tackle the inequity between farmers and the corporate giants they ultimately trade with

With fertiliser costs of €200/ac, it won’t matter what price they get per tonne. They’re facing losses that will threaten the viability of their farm.

The safe bet if we get a late or adverse spring would be to plant a cover crop in moderate land. And if that happens, where will the straw come from for next winter?

Having dismantled production-linked supports, Brussels must tackle the inequity between farmers and the corporate giants they ultimately trade with. There’s been plenty of rhetoric in that regard, but little tangible action. In fact, the tariff that is levied on fertiliser, which is passed back in full to be paid by farmers, is to protect fertiliser companies. Exactly from whom, I struggle to see.

Fertiliser prices in 2022 are a window into the future, a wake-up call. But what do we do about it?