The move by the EU to put in place a mechanism that would allow it respond to the UK’s Northern Ireland protocol bill is a reminder that despite a more positive mood music between Brussels and London, the problem with the Brexit deal remains.

Basically, the move by the UK is to introduce legislation that overrules the protocol that was agreed to enable Northern Ireland remain within the EU single market, which in turn meant compliance with EU rules.

There have been two problems with the original Brexit protocol, in that it was far too cumbersome to facilitate trade between the rest of the UK and Northern Ireland, as well as being politically unacceptable to people who considered it to undermine Northern Ireland’s position within the UK.

Reaction to UK legislation

The mechanism that the EU is putting in place to respond will enable it to introduce targeted tariffs on the UK in response to the UK legislation which overrides the original agreed protocol.

While this would be a serious development in the context of EU-UK trade and relations, it should be kept in context.

The EU and US, who are very much allies on the international stage, are constantly bickering on trade issues and targeted tariffs are a frequent reality.

If the EU and UK get into the same space, the fear for farmers either side of the border is that it would escalate to include agri-food products.

From a UK perspective, looking at the must vulnerable area of EU exports to the UK, agri-food products from Ireland are top of the pile.

If full tariffs were applied, we are looking at a cost of over €1bn and a disaster for Irish farmers.

Farmers north of the border are equally exposed because continued cross-border trade in this scenario would be problematic, if not totally impossible.

Brexit crises have always passed, so far

Of course, Brexit crises have become normal over the past six years and just when disaster gets close, a way to defer if not fully solve problems has always been found.

This remains the most likely outcome still, but we have to remain aware of the consequences of not finding a resolution.

Even the former Northern Ireland agriculture minister Edwin Poots recognises the beneficial parts of the protocol, which he lobbied for in the passage of the UK legislation despite his political opposition to it.

The UK government could find a solution to most of the practical problems by adopting the recommendation from the Ulster Farmers Union briefing paper, which suggests a veterinary agreement between the EU and UK.

This would eliminate most of the sanitary and phyto sanitary controls on the trade of goods from animal and plant origin.

So far, this has been rejected by the UK, but as the debate grows in the UK about the outworking of Brexit, this remains an area where the UK and EU could align with minimal political controversy.

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