The big news stories this week once again reflected the anti-livestock trend that has been apparent for a number of months now. Politically, we see the push by a Green Party councillor to remove live animals from the Dublin city centre crib, to be replaced with moving screens and digital images. While irrelevant to most Irish farm families from a farm business perspective, in a sense it sums up what the 2022 anti-livestock agenda looks like for farmers.

In the same way we see the significant ongoing pressure from the EU in our own departments for farmers to go organic or into forestry. It’s another way to push lower stocking rates and lower output.

I have no issue with organics in principle. However, the mechanics of how to operate and how to market product are critical to success if farmers are to have a livelihood from it. For a farm business, the €250/ha scheme premium could be dwarfed by additional costs if purchased inputs are required alongside much lower output.

Getting conventional grains might be a struggle under current war-time circumstances so unless you grow all your own feed in an organics system, you could very quickly become a forced seller. Forced sellers don’t make premiums.

In much the same way, budgeting on an organic premium as part of your sales now seems to be dismissed out of hand by anyone I talk to. So all those applying to the organic scheme by the 9 December deadline should plan for conventional prices and a policy of grow your own with on-farm recycled nutrients.

Forestry premium

This week’s announcement of much-increased forestry premiums again points to a further enticement-led approach to make farmers consider forestry on part of their land).

The dairy vision grouping final report very clearly sets out the stall to reduce feed grown on farms, which in turn will mean less livestock on Irish dairy farms.

Separately, but allied to this, will be the forced stocking rate reduction by reducing organic nitrogen from 250 to 220kg/hectare, which, again will mean lower stock numbers, or more concentrated stock numbers on fewer farms with land leased and purchased by those who have the financial buying power.

So, we have a sheep and cattle sector being dazzled by increased premiums into organics and forestry. Alongside this, we have dairy and tillage sectors that use inputs such as fertiliser and herbicides further restricted, making it much more difficult to produce food.

Don’t forget the CAP changes that are taking money from commercial suckler and tillage farmers starting 1 January 2023 with very few coupled payment options. All indications point towards less and less food production in Ireland.

Inflation

At the same time, we need to listen to comments from Dan Basse, the US-based market analyst who suggests the era of low interest rates is gone. He suggests inflation will run at 4% to 5% after the next two years (even higher before that) and interest rates need to be 1% to 1.5% above this inflation rate. The ECB interest rate rises and predictions for further increases this week build on this vision. Any farm making large financial commitments needs to take all of the above into account.

Interestingly, Basse sees a further reduction in global crop yields and a push to more renewable oils in the US. This will mean more soya crops going to energy which will mean more soya bean meal for export. Where will it go? Probably to China, where the pig and beef herds are growing.

Another speaker at the Barnett-Hall conference suggested that while energy has influenced economic and/or political power in the past, the ongoing digital revolution could have a similar impact. Maybe he’s right, but given what is happening Irish, EU and global food dynamics, maybe food and food production might also have a role in political power.