According to the latest CSO export figures for December 2019, 1,338t of Irish beef was exported to China, up from 877t in November.

However, Hong Kong showed a sharp drop from 996t to just 224t in December.

Elsewhere, the Philippines remained the largest market beyond the UK and EU, taking 2,081t in December, while the USA took 438t.

Notable increase

The most notable increase apart from China was Japan, taking 519t in December, with the previous highest monthly total in 2019 being 333t.

The free trade deal between the EU and Japan came into effect in February 2019 and it should encourage further exports in 2020. Canada, too, has shown some promise in the later months of 2019, reaching 370t in August and 266t in December.

While these increases represent progress in developing markets, the reality is that they remain a miniscule part of Ireland’s overall beef exports.

The UK continued to dwarf all other export markets for Irish beef in 2019, taking 47% of exports - down 5% on the previous year.

Potential

There is some potential in the USA for further growth in forequarter manufacturing beef in 2020 and while China has been a turbulent market for its high-volume South American suppliers, it has the most potential of all as a new export market for Irish beef.

The big unknown is what impact coronavirus will have on trade from both a logistics perspective and consumer demand.

Import demand is forecast at 2.9m tonnes in 2020, the only high-volume market in the world that is expected to show an increase in demand this year.

Global beef supply 2020

Another issue that will determine the value of the Chinese market to Irish farmers in 2020 is what beef supply is available from the other major beef exporting countries.

According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the USA will produce about 12.5m tonnes of beef, carcase weight equivalent (CWE) this year, down slightly on 2019. Australia is also expected to be down 200,000t CWE because of drought and bushfires to about 3.1m tonnes.

Output in Brazil has been increasing in recent years and while FAS is revising projections downwards to 10.585m tonnes, it is still 600,000t more beef than they produced in 2018.

They are expected to export 2.5m tonnes this year - the largest exporter in the world. Argentina, too, is expected to further increase its exports to 840,000t, three times the 293,000t they exported in 2017.

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