If reasonable weather holds from now until the end of the harvest, cereal production in the EU will recover from last year’s five-year low to reach a predicted 311m tonnes for the 2019-2020 year, according to the latest EU short-term market outlook report.

Last year was affected by drought, not just in Ireland, but across the EU, with the corresponding negative impact on yields.

Wheat is forecast to increase by 10% to 142m tonnes, barley by 7% to 60m tonnes and maize by 0.5% to 69m tonnes according to the EU outlook, while feed demand for livestock is predicted to remain similar to last year.

Pigs

The EU pig trade, like the rest of the world, is hugely impacted by the ongoing African swine fever (ASF) crisis in China, which is driving huge demand for pigmeat supplies, as Chinese production is back anywhere from 20% to 35%.

While EU production is expected to remain stable in 2019 according to the EU outlook, exports to China will increase by 12%, with sales diverted from other export markets.

A growth in EU pigmeat production of 1.4% is forecast for 2020, as the demand from China is expected to continue.

Poultry

Poultry production is forecast to continue growing, increasing by 2.5% this year on top of a 5% increase in 2018.

Consumer demand continues to grow, with per-capita consumption now at 25.4kg, up 0.6kg on last year.

Increasing pigmeat prices because of export demand could have the effect of creating more demand for poultry meat.