More than ever, the markets for animal feeds and fertiliser are filled with uncertainty on price and doubts on the availability of product, especially for fertiliser.

Gill Gallagher, the CEO at NI Grain Trade Association, says that supply problems mean farmers should get their fertiliser requirements sorted out sooner rather than later, with an order placed with their merchant together with a plan for a delivery date.

Speaking at an NI Institute of Agricultural Science meeting, she said that without a pre-planned order book, the fertiliser trade will not be able to supply all of farmers’ needs.

Last-minute orders placed next spring will, in all likelihood, not be met in time for the main grass growing season.

Despite the price increase, work by researchers at AFBI Hillsborough confirms there is still an economic benefit in applying expensive fertilisers, especially when meal costs are high.

Feed market

In the feed market, prices continue to be buffeted by disruption to supplies from Ukraine, the rising cost of labour, energy and transport, EU exit, climate change and the value of sterling.

Gallagher said the impact of these issues will be with us well into the future. Of the range of issues debated, two stand out – the effects of climate change on crop yields and the weakness of sterling, especially against the US dollar.

Climate change leading to drier, hotter summers reduces grain output. In the UK and EU27 in 2022, the total grain crop is estimated at 288m tonnes, a drop of 22m tonnes or 7% from the 2021 figure of 310m tonnes.

Within these figures, the production of wheat and barley held up; the main reduction was for maize, falling to 52m tonnes in 2022 from 70m tonnes in 2021. Lower supplies puts upward pressure on prices.

Weak sterling also has an impact, especially for the likes of soya meal, all of which is imported and priced in US dollars. Soya meal at US$550/t cost £478/t in November 2022 at an exchange rate of £1 = $1.15. This compares to £404 in November 2021 at a rate of £1 = $1.36. With sterling continuing weak, there is little sign of relief to prices in the coming months.

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