As reported last week, milk supply for April is expected to be back by approximately 3.5% compared to last year.

This is the first time since 2018 that April supplies have reduced on the year previous and it has left some in the industry wondering if dairy expansion has ground to a halt.

Department of Agriculture figures up to the start of February show that cow numbers are up almost 50,000 head or 3.3% compared to the same period last year.

While figures for March and April aren’t yet available, one trend that may have continued is an increase in female dairy slaughterings.

There was a 10,000 head or 27% increase in females with a dairy sire slaughtered in January and February this year.

If this trend has continued into March and April, it could mean the total number of dairy cows in the country currently is no greater or even less than the same period last year, when there were 1.64m dairy cows.

Certainly, the overall cow kill is well up on previous years, running 23% higher year to date compared to last year.

However, these figures include the beef cow kill too.

With feed, fertiliser and silage at record prices, many farmers have taken a rational decision to be more liberal in terms of choosing which cows to cull.

Cull

Rather than milk on poorer-performing cows, farmers have decided to cull them, which reduces demand for grass and increases the area available for silage or other stock.

They also benefit from historically high cull cow prices at present.

Weather

The last time April supplies dropped was in 2018 and the time before that was in 2016.

Both years have their specific challenges, with a severe weather event in 2018 and very low milk prices in spring 2016.

Neither of these reasons can be used to explain why milk output has dropped in spring 2022 as base milk prices are within touching distance of 50c/l – something which could only have been dreamed about even 12 months ago.

While temperatures were a bit colder than normal in April, rainfall levels were much lower

Similarly, weather conditions over the last number of months has been relatively benign, with both February and March much milder than normal and rainfall in March well below average at all Met Éireann weather stations.

While temperatures were a bit colder than normal in April, rainfall levels were much lower.

According to Teagasc, total grass growth per hectare is running 120kg behind the same period last year. This equates to grass growth rates being on average 1kg/ha/day behind last year, about a 5% reduction in growth.

Last April was by no means a bumper month for growth either, so it seems the reduction in nitrogen applied may be having an impact on growth.

PastureBase data is also suggesting that average concentrate feeding levels are currently at 4kg/cow/day.

On some farms, silage continued to be supplemented well into March and April so this may have had a lingering impact on milk yield as silage quality in many parts of the south was poor last year due to poor weather at harvest.

Negative

Ongoing negativity surrounding milk production in Ireland is also likely to be having an impact on dairy farmer sentiment and milk supply.

Massive input cost inflation, changes to the nitrates action plan, the introduction of the Climate Action Plan, the leaked report from the Food Vision Dairy Group, plus new peak milk management rules at Glanbia and Lakeland, are all feeding into a negative narrative around dairying and are likely to be having an impact on milk output as farmers pull back supply rather than drive on.

Focus needs to be on grass quality and getting cows in calf

Despite the challenges, there has never been a better time than now to produce milk in Ireland.

Over the next few months, dairy farmers have the opportunity to generate good cash by producing cheap milk off grass regardless of whether national supply is up or down a couple of per cent. Reduce meal feeding rates to the bare minimum and focus on grazing covers at 1,400kg pre-grazing yield.

The main focus needs to be on grass quality and getting cows in calf. Everything else is a distraction.