Christophe Lafougere, CEO of GIRA, a consulting and research company specialising the world of agri food presented his outlook for the global dairy market at the Bord Bia Dairy Markets Seminar on 24 March.
He had good news for dairy companies who are increasing their investments in whey protein production. Despite the rapid increase in cheese production in recent years, particularly in the US, the global whey protein market is forecast to have a supply shortage over the years to 2030.
Whey demand imbalance.
The biggest market for whey protein over the coming years will continue to be the adult nutrition sector, which will also have the highest compound annual growth rate. Lafougere said that while the protein trend is not new, it has been accelerated by the increased prevalence of GLP-1 weight loss drugs.
He did note that the high cost of whey protein products such as WPC80 could lead to increased substitution with plant proteins or by production through fermentation.
Interestingly, Lafougere was also optimistic about the outlook for skimmed milk prices. His data showed that the world’s largest producers of SMP, the EU, New Zealand and the USA combined will have exported 32,000t less SMP in 2025. This trend is expected to continue in 2026 and it comes at a time when global demand for SMP is rising.
While China, the traditional major importer of SMP is seeing its import market shrink, the rest of southeast Asia is showing very strong growth of 4.5% annually until 2030. He also added that there could be a short-term bounce in SMP prices from the conflict in Iran as that country is a significant regional supplier.
Christophe Lafougere, CEO of GIRA, a consulting and research company specialising the world of agri food presented his outlook for the global dairy market at the Bord Bia Dairy Markets Seminar on 24 March.
He had good news for dairy companies who are increasing their investments in whey protein production. Despite the rapid increase in cheese production in recent years, particularly in the US, the global whey protein market is forecast to have a supply shortage over the years to 2030.
Whey demand imbalance.
The biggest market for whey protein over the coming years will continue to be the adult nutrition sector, which will also have the highest compound annual growth rate. Lafougere said that while the protein trend is not new, it has been accelerated by the increased prevalence of GLP-1 weight loss drugs.
He did note that the high cost of whey protein products such as WPC80 could lead to increased substitution with plant proteins or by production through fermentation.
Interestingly, Lafougere was also optimistic about the outlook for skimmed milk prices. His data showed that the world’s largest producers of SMP, the EU, New Zealand and the USA combined will have exported 32,000t less SMP in 2025. This trend is expected to continue in 2026 and it comes at a time when global demand for SMP is rising.
While China, the traditional major importer of SMP is seeing its import market shrink, the rest of southeast Asia is showing very strong growth of 4.5% annually until 2030. He also added that there could be a short-term bounce in SMP prices from the conflict in Iran as that country is a significant regional supplier.
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