UECBV, the EU umbrella trade association for the meat processing industry have published a report warning of a collapse in meat trade with the UK if there is a hard Brexit.
The headline numbers are a drop in the value of €2.4bn in the value of beef and €2.3bn in the value of pig meat as a result of a predicted 84% drop in trade between the EU 27 and the UK in beef, 76% in sheep meat and 46% in pig meat.
Job loss
The report also advises that as many as 32,000 jobs could be lost in the industry across the EU 27.
The impact of Brexit will hit the Irish meat industry hardest of all.
The loss of trade with the UK is predicted to leave the EU considerably over supplied with beef at 116% of consumption and that is before any further access to the EU market as a result of trade discussions.
The report predicts a drop in the market value of beef by 8% as a result in the loss of trade with the UK which is inevitable given an average tariff burden of 50% in the meat sector but as much as 100% in some categories.
Ireland will be hardest hit
The report also confirms that Ireland will be hardest hit as it exports more beef, pig meat and sheep meat than all of the other EU 26 countries combined.
Ireland currently supplies 56% of the EU 27 meat exports to the UK and therefore the impact of Brexit will hit the Irish meat industry hardest of all.
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