Irish export figures for 2019 are likely to show some reduction in dependence on Britain for beef exports, it is likely to be a small reduction and the UK will remain our biggest export market by far for beef.

Tesco offers a British and Irish beef range alongside each other at the same price point and produced to the exact same specification, yet Irish cattle price has fallen well behind the British price in recent weeks.

It is less so for sheepmeat exports, with our main destination continental Europe, a market opportunity that has developed with New Zealand focusing on China and the UK being seen as a less certain supply source because of Brexit.

Even with this, the UK is expected to remain a market for up to one fifth of Irish sheepmeat exports.

British consumption

With the importance of the UK market for Irish beef and sheep exports, continued falling consumption in that market will be a cause of concern for Irish farmers.

According to Kantar data on retail sales, published by the AHDB - the UK beef and lamb levy board - consumption of beef was 387,651t for the year ending 1 December 2019, which is a fall of 1.1% on the previous year, which had also shown a decline in beef purchases from retail outlets.

The value of purchases also showed a decline of 1.5%, with the average retail price of beef for the year ending 1 December 2019 at £7.74/kg (€9.10/kg), with 92% of households buying beef at some point during the year.

Within the different types of beef bought by consumers, the greatest decline was in purchases of roast beef, which was down 5.7% in the year to 1 December, followed by frying or grilling steak, which was down by 4.7%. This was reflected by a particularly weak wholesale trade for these beef cuts throughout 2019.

Demand for stewing type beef was also down by 2.2%, while it was a mixed return for products where beef is included as an ingredient. Demand was down for frozen pies and puddings by 5.5%, but up 3.7% for fresh pre-packed pasties and 1.3% for hot pies. Mince purchases also showed growth by 2.2% for the year.

Lamb sales

Total lamb volume sales in Britain were down 2.1% to 77,639t in the year to December 2019, with an even higher fall of 4.1% in retail sales for the 12 weeks up to 1 December.

The biggest fall of 8.9% was in retail sales of ready meals with a lamb content and, as with beef, the roasting cuts performed poorly.

Leg roasting joints sales volumes were down 3.3% in the year to 1 December, shoulder roasts were down 2.5%, while chops and steaks for frying were down 2.7%, according to the Kantar data.

It was more positive for lamb mince, where volume sales increased by 3.2%, while lamb marinades increased sales by 5.5%.

Lamb was bought in supermarkets or other retail outlets by 61% of British shoppers in the year to 1 December 2019, considerably less than the 92% of shoppers that bought beef at some point during the year.

Given the amount of negative publicity surrounding red meat from both an environmental and health perspective, it is inevitable that there is some impact on consumer product choices.

We can logically assume that they will also have chosen these products at some point in out-of-home eating

There is some consolation and hope in the fact that despite all the negative publicity, 92% of the population bought beef and 61% bought lamb at some point during the year and we can logically assume that they will also have chosen these products at some point in out-of-home eating.

However, what the figures mean is that while at least 92% of the shopping population are beef or lamb eaters, they are eating a little less than previously.

This, along with added availability of non-EU imported beef in particular, puts serious market pressure on produce leaving Irish farms.

This was added to by the fact that factories appear to have been able to secure higher prices for UK red tractor-branded beef than its Irish counterpart, despite the top three supermarkets and burger chains all promoting their use of British and Irish beef.