Brazil’s cattle herd is forecast to pass 225m head by 2033, a 28m increase on the 197m head that it was in 2023.
This was published by ABIEC, which represents Brazil’s beef processors in its Beef Report 2024.
An even greater increase in beef production is forecast at 14.7m tonnes in 2033 compared with 10.6t in 2023, while exports are forecast to show a more modest increase to 3.8m tonnes carcase weight equivalent (CWE), compared with 3m tonnes in 2023.
This is because domestic beef consumption is forecast to increase by more than 2m tonnes to 10.9m tonnes CWE.
To put this growth of cattle numbers in context, the 28m head increase in Brazil amounts to more than four times the entire Irish cattle population.
Figure 1 illustrates that the current growth phase has been ongoing since 2018 when the cattle population in Brazil was 171.5m head and though there was a temporary pause in 2021, growth has been substantial over the past two years.
Improved efficiency
The report draws attention to the improving efficiency of Brazil’s beef production saying that over the past 30 years there has been a 172% increase in productivity.
This has happened alongside a 16% reduction in land use for beef production to about 161m acres in 2023, releasing it for crop production and forestry.
It also tackles the thorny issue of rainforest clearance for beef production and claims that “Brazil does not produce or export more beef because deforestation increases, nor less when deforestation decreases”.
It describes a small number of properties, around 2%, being responsible for 62% of deforestation, having the potential “to contaminate a significant part of the livestock chain”.
ABIEC members handle 84% of cattle slaughtering in the Amazon, with 94% having a cattle purchase policy that excludes purchase of cattle farmed on illegally cleared land.
Brazil’s cattle traceability system is based on animal group movement control with individual animal traceability required for the final 90 days in the case of cattle that are being processed for sale in the EU.
Irish and UK farmers are required to register the birth of every individual animal and tag it during the first 28 days of its life.
There is no doubt that the beef industry in Brazil has made huge strides in raising standards over recent years and is much more conscious of its environmental impact than was the case at the beginning of this century.
Like other beef-exporting countries excluding Ireland, the focus is on reducing emissions per kilo of beef, as opposed to having an absolute reduction target.
At present, beef production accounts for 17% of Brazil’s total emissions. They have huge potential through genetics to reduce the age of slaughter and increase meat yields.
However, it is striking that they don’t see the need to have an absolute emissions reduction requirement, as is the case in Ireland.
In fact, Brazil is scheduled to increase absolute production numbers to 28m more head of cattle by 2033, a sharp contrast with the Irish position of reducing output of beef with an even lower CO2e per kilo.
The irony is that with this expansion and an additional 99,000t beef quota for the EU if the Mercosur trade seal comes into force is likely to see an increasing share of the deficit in EU beef production being replaced with beef imports from Brazil.
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