In their October livestock and poultry outlook, USDA is forecasting a 1% decline in global beef production next year to 60.9m tonnes carcase weight equivalent (CWE).
Production for this year is estimated by USDA to be just under 61.4m tonnes. The forecast for 12.9m tonnes of beef CWE to be exported in 2025 shows almost no change on 2024 levels with the ongoing decline in US beef export volumes being offset by increased exports from Brazil and Australia.
CWE, as the name suggests, includes all the bone and fat that are removed in deboning and the standard conversion from carcase weight to product weight is to multiply by a coefficient of 0.7.
While there is a decline of 500,000 tonnes in global production forecast, the fact that volumes exported are predicted to increase marginally means trade patterns will be relatively consistent.
Within the overall global figures there are some significant changes in individual countries’ production and trade patterns forecast for next year.
Slump in US beef exports
Probably the most striking feature of the latest USDA forecast is the ongoing drop in US beef production and consequent fall in trade volumes which had been at record levels as recently as 2022.
At the start of this year, the US cattle herd was at its lowest levels since 1951 and USDA’s latest forecast suggests production will decline by 4% in 2025 due to less cattle availability.
This will impact on the dynamic of US beef exports and imports which are traditionally in sync with as much being exported as is imported.
This is because from its domestic industry; the US produces a surplus of steak meat which is exported and not enough manufacturing beef for burgers with the supply deficit met by imports.
For 2025, USDA is forecasting that US beef imports will reach a record 2m tonnes CWE and exports will fall by 12% to 1.2m tonnes CWE. Incidentally, this will create further opportunity for Irish beef exports to the US which have more than doubled to 3,716 tonnes product weight so far this year.
If 2025 is to be a year of decline for US beef exports, the opposite is forecast for Australia. There production is forecast to increase by 2% to 2.6m tonnes and exports are also forecast to increase by 2% in 2025, rising to 1.9m tonnes CWE.
Argentinian beef exports are forecast to increase by 40,000 tonnes on this year to a record 860,000 tonnes encouraged by a reduction in beef export tariffs.
Brazilian beef exports in 2025 are also forecast to increase by a relatively small 25,000 tonnes to 3.6m tonnes in total, which is more than 1m tonnes more than they exported in 2020.
India is a huge exporter of bovine meat but tends not to feature so much in analysis because much of the Indian herd is made up of water buffalo.
They are expected to export 1.645m tonnes in 2025, mainly to lower value neighbouring Asian markets.
Beef importers in 2025
Despite the US being forecast to pass 2m tonnes of beef imports in 2025 for the first time, China will continue to be the biggest importer. USDA is forecasting a small further increase in volume to 3.825m tonnes, up from 3.775m tonnes this year.
Marginal change is forecast for the other two big Asian markets with Japan’s imports forecast to fall by 5,000 tonnes to 720,000 tonnes while South Korea is forecast to increase by 5,000 tonnes to 575,000 tonnes. From an Irish perspective perhaps the most interesting forecast is for UK import demand to increase by 15,000 tonnes to 415,000 tonnes.
EU forecasts will also be of particular relevance for Irish farmers. USDA is forecasting a 2% drop in EU production in 2025, twice what has been forecast by the European Commission.
On trade USDA is forecasting EU beef imports to decline by 15,000 tonnes and EU exports to fall by 50,000 tonnes to 660,000 tonnes. See Figures 1 and 2 for all the main trading volumes forecast by USDA for 2025.
On one level, global beef production and trading patterns are of no more than a passing interest to Irish farmers as half our beef exports go to the UK with most of the rest to EU countries and just somewhere between 5% and 10% to wider global markets. Yet what happens in these markets has an indirect effect on the value of Irish beef.
Given that China will account for more than one third of all beef imported in 2025, what happens there will determine how much product from South American countries makes its way to the EU and UK markets.
The UK is now also very much in play for Australian and New Zealand beef exports though the strength of the long-established US market and consistent growth in the relatively close Chinese market has been a more attractive option so far.
For Irish beef producers the forecast that the UK will import more beef next year is good news and declining EU production should also enhance demand for Irish beef next year.
In short