It is now almost seven years since the UK voted to leave the EU and the intervening period has been one of turmoil and uncertainty, particularly for farmers on the island of Ireland.

This arose because agriculture is the sector that is among the most bureaucratic and with the highest tariffs in international trade.

This is avoided in the EU because the members share their territory with the others as a single market. Once a member leaves, then the normal rules of international trade are restored.

The prolonged EU-UK negotiation finished up with a trade deal that avoided tariffs, which was good news, but not the sanitary and phytosanitary controls on animal and plant products which had the potential to be a disaster for cross-border trade on the island of Ireland.

This has been avoided with the protocol and its successor in the Windsor framework, which may be politically unpalatable for pro-union political views in Northern Ireland, but it keeps trade routes open both ways.

Improving relations

Relations between the EU and UK have improved significantly since the present UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak came to power.

It was clear from the visit of the Eoropean Commission president Ursula von der Leyen to the UK to sign the Windsor agreement that both sides were ready for a reset of relations.

While the UK has taken most of the blame for the post-Brexit slump in relations, the reality is that the EU’s hard-line negotiation approach didn’t help either, even if they felt it was justified.

The UK has yet to impose full border controls on imports from the EU

While the current EU-UK position looks and feels like a more settled one, there could still be trouble ahead.

The UK has yet to impose full border controls on imports from the EU – these are scheduled to come into effect from the end of October this year, having been postponed several times already.

They are in place on EU border entry points for UK exports to the EU. These have effectively excluded small exporters in the UK from the EU market and will have the same effect the other way round when border controls are fully enforced.

It simply won't be worthwhile for small and micro businesses to go through with costly export procedure. Of course, the UK could again defer further, as it has done with the plan to slash EU laws from the UK statute book.

Best way forward

The better approach is that a comprehensive review of the EU-UK trade and co-operation agreement, which defined the trading basis post-Brexit, is commenced ahead of the scheduled date in 2025.

Given the new pragmatism that appears to exist in relations between London and Brussels, it could be that there is a mood for further evolution to a more unofficial single market model, a halfway house between EU membership and being completely outside the trading loop of the EU27.

The EU and UK are working closely on defence since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Just as it makes sense to have close co-operation militarily, it makes equal sense to have it economically.