Beef trade
The UK imported 233,000t of beef in 2022, which is 3.6% lower than the figure for 2021.
This was despite imports running ahead of the previous year for the first six months, with the most substantial decline in the second half of the year.
Brexit taking effect in January 2021 explains the lower levels of trade then due to stockpiling ahead of the date.
The value of beef imports in 2022 was 16% higher at £1.24bn, despite the drop in volume. This is explained by the higher price of beef in 2022.
Ireland supplied 168,358t or 72.5% of UK fresh and frozen beef imports in 2022, which is over 21,000t less than in 2021, when Ireland supplied over 78% of the UK’s fresh and frozen beef imports.
UK beef exports rebounded in 2022 after a slow start in 2021 because of Brexit.
They increased by 20,800t or 20% to 123,700t in 2022, with the value up 48% to £540m, with higher beef prices the main contributor to this, as well as higher volume.
Ireland is the biggest customer, taking 27,264t of fresh beef, just ahead of France, which doubled its share of UK beef exports in 2022 to 26,850t.
Lamb trade
UK lamb imports increased by 17% in 2022 to 54,000t compared with 2021, with the value up £81m to £342m.
Exports increased by 5,400t or 8% to 75,300t compared with 2021. The value increased by £56m to £494m.
As was the case with beef, exports of lamb were particularly low in the first half of 2021, as exporters adapted to EU border controls.
New Zealand is the main supplier of UK lamb imports, accounting for 32,548t in 2022, 27,930t of which was frozen. Australia is next, sending 9,575t, with Ireland the third-largest supplier on 7,078t.
France is the main export destination for UK lamb, taking 33,863t in 2022, followed by Germany on 14,081t, with Ireland next taking 7,644t.
Beef outlook
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) is forecasting a 1.2% increase in prime cattle slaughter in 2023, most of which will be in the first half of the year and a corresponding drop of 1.5% in cow slaughter, leaving an overall increase of 0.6%.
More worryingly for Irish farmers is the forecast that import demand is forecast to fall by 2%, reflecting a predicted reduction in consumer demand of 2%.
Consumer demand in 2023 is forecast to be 7% lower than it was in 2019 across all categories of beef consumption.
The Australian and New Zealand trade deals are likely to be ratified by the middle of the year and this will make the UK market a very competitive place in the latter part of the year and into the future.
Lamb outlook
The AHDB is forecasting an 8% to 9% increase in production in 2023 due to a higher carryover from 2022 and stable production in the 2023 season.
Worryingly, lamb consumption is forecast to fall again in 2023 by 8% on 2022 volumes, which would make lamb consumption in the UK a substantial 21% lower than in 2019. This is across all areas of consumption, including out-of-home eating and retail.
The AHDB is predicting that this will mean a 5% drop in demand for imports in 2023 and a corresponding substantial increase in exports of up to 15%.
This is more bad news for Irish sheep farmers, because not only will the UK market be smaller for our exports, there will also be more competition from UK lambs in continental markets as well.
This dynamic could be increased further when the Australian trade deal kicks it - it will have no real impact on NZ supplies, as it already has a huge tariff-free quota that it doesn’t fill.