Latest data from the US Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF) shows that the volume of US meat exports in the first half of this year were down 4% to 643,000 tonnes.

This reflects the combination of a tighter beef supply in the US with the national cattle herd at its lowest point since 1951 and an abundance of beef supply from both Brazil and Australia.

Both these countries, along with the US, make up the top three of global beef exporters, with Brazil now exporting in excess of 2m tonnes annually and Australia exporting over 1m tonnes annually.

Both these countries posted their highest monthly total export volumes in July, so are putting pressure in export markets they share with the US.

Markets

Japan was the top export market for US beef in June, with volumes up 8% compared with a year ago at 22,308t, but overall volume for the first half of 2024 was still slightly lower than last year, down 2% at 127,020t.

Volumes sold to Korea fell in June, down 9% to 19,378t compared with the same month last year. Overall exports to Korea for the first half of 2024 were down 13% to 116,338t, but it remains in second place.

Both Korea and Japan don’t import beef from Brazil, so the only significant competition for US exporters in both these markets is from Australia.

They have squeezed US exporters this year, as they have record supplies of beef available from cattle that are costing just over half of what is being paid in the US.

Mexico and China swapped places as the third- and fourth-largest export markets for US beef in June 2024.

Volumes to China in June 2023 were 21,139t, but this has fallen to 16,335t in June 2024.

While exports to Mexico also declined in June, from 18,005t in June last year to 17,150t in June this year, it is still enough to make Mexico the fourth-largest market for US beef exports.

It is a similar switch for the year to date, as China has fallen from 119,810t in the first half of 2023 to 104,781t for the same period this year, while Mexico has increased from 100,171t in the first half of last year to 113,473t in the first half of this year.

The EU and UK combined also received less beef in the first half of 2023, down from 10,890t in the first half of last year to 8,668t in the first half of 2024.

Farmgate cattle prices in the US are the highest of any major beef exporting country in the world at present, with farmers getting the equivalent of €6.25/kg for carcases that are killing out at 60%.

This is because cattle supply is limited, making factories chase cattle hard and pay top dollar in the process.

US exporters also benefit from the prime US beef position in the high value markets of Korea and Japan, although Australian supplies are also squeezing them here to some extent.

US supplies to Europe remain low, as few US beef finishers will forsake the use of growth-promoting hormones, particularly as they have adequate markets at present without Europe.

The tightness of supply in the US market is also revealed by the 14% increase in US beef imports so far this year to 833,818t. Irish beef has doubled its share of the US market this year to a still tiny 2,887t.