The latest Department of Agriculture Animal Identification and Movement (AIM) age profile for 1 May 2019 shows a reduction in the national cattle herd of 139,590 head.

Tables 1 and 2 give a detailed breakdown of numbers in each age category for beef and dairy animals and also details the change in numbers compared with 1 May 2018.

The fall-off in numbers is stemming primarily from higher live exports and lower suckler births, while this year’s beef kill hitting a massive 903,828 head for the first six months of 2019 represents an increase in throughput of 45,558 head.

Little solace

The reduction in the national herd is of little solace to producers who are facing ongoing challenges of a seriously depressed cattle trade and delays in getting cattle booked in for slaughter.

This is as the reduction in numbers will not translate into tighter cattle supplies in the short term.

The most relevant age brackets for producers at present are the 18- to 24-month category, the 24- to 30-month bracket and, to a lesser extent, the 30- to 36-month age category.

The greatest change is 19,740 fewer dairy males in the 24- to 30-month age bracket.

However, this is balanced out by an additional 9,867 extra beef males of similar age and an additional 17,465 beef females.

There was a negligible change in the 30- to 36-month age category, with 770 fewer animals across beef and dairy categories, while tighter numbers coming down the line is starting to be reflected in 7,617 fewer animals in the 18- to 24-month category.

Significant reduction

Longer term, there will be a significant tightening in numbers, as the analysis shows just shy of 140,000 fewer beef cattle and dairy males in the zero- to six-month, six- to 12-month and 12- to 18-month age categories.

This is being driven by higher live exports and a continued fall in the suckler herd.

The latest Department of Agriculture records shows live exports running 51,509 head above 2018 levels to the week ending 22 June 2019. The increase has been underpinned by 181,042 calves being exported, an increase of 40,263 head on the corresponding period in 2018.

Exports of finished animals are up 4,924, while there was 3,639 extra stores and 2,683 extra weanlings as detailed in Table 3.

Dairy expansion

While expansion in dairying has slowed, it continues to materialise, with the AIM report recording 1,536,419 dairy cows on farms on 1 May 2019.

This is an increase of 25,122 cows in the space of 12 months and a huge 299,897 head in the last five years.

The increase in the dairy herd is in direct contrast with the suckler herd, with 969,600 cows on farms on 1 May 2019, a drop of 41,276 head.

Depressed trade

Meanwhile, the beef trade remains challenging, with producers continuing to contend with poor prices and delays in getting cattle booked in for slaughter.

The base price for heifers ranges from €3.70/kg to €3.75/kg, with steers 10c/kg lower at a base of €3.60/kg to €3.65/kg.

Under-16-month bulls remain under pressure, with an even wider differential opening up in prices paid.

The general run of base prices is €3.60/kg to €3.65/kg, but there is a swing of 5c/kg depending on the producer-processor relationship, negotiating power and the factory’s interest in young bulls.

Tight restrictions remain in place on weight, with some plants removing bulls from payment on the grid at a carcase weight of 420kg to 430kg upwards.

Bulls aged over 16 months but under 24 months are trading from €3.55/kg to €3.60/kg for R grades, with U grades anywhere from €3.60/kg to €3.70/kg.

Weight is also an issue, with bulls deemed overweight and weighing from 450kg to 500kg priced as low as €3.40/kg to €3.50/kg.

Overage Friesian bulls are being quoted as low as €3.00/kg to €3.10/kg, with some plants quoting even lower.

Slow northern trade

Plants in the North are operating at a slower pace this week due to the holiday period.

Factories have their cattle sourced for this week and are slow to quote prices beyond this.

Base quotes for U-3 steers and heifers start at £3.20/kg, rising to £3.28/kg at the higher end of the market. This is the equivalent of €3.57/kg to €3.66/kg at 89.6p to the euro and €3.76/kg to €3.86/kg including VAT at 5.4%.