There wasn’t much change on the dairy markets scene this week, with the European milk market more or less unchanged from last week. Both butter and cheddar increased by €25/t, which is welcome, but not hugely significant.

On the powder scene, whole milk powder (WMP) decreased in price by €5/t, while skim milk powder (SMP) has halted the recent decline to increase by €5/t. It’s holiday season across Europe, so I wouldn’t expect much change in the market over the coming weeks.

Over at the GDT pulse auction this week, there was further declines for both SMP and WMP, with falls of €51/t and 81/t respectively. Now the volume being traded at these auctions is still low, but it’s an indicator of morale within the market.

Looking at supply, the latest stats out of New Zealand are that June milk was back 2.2% on a milk solids basis compared to June 2023.

This follows on from May 2024, which was back 4.3% in milk solids compared to May 2023. The NZ season is only starting, but these slow supply trends over the winter could be early indications of a trend.

Of course New Zealand has been hugely reliant on the Chinese market and the news out of China continues to be bad, with the latest reports of more reductions in dairy imports, even though domestic production is falling too.

There is a big surplus of whole milk powder in China and exports of SMP from Europe are on the floor, with monthly export figures the lowest seen in years.