The year 2016 was difficult for farmers, but as the year progressed, farmgate prices and incomes generally improved, mainly on the back of a reduction in the value of sterling against the euro as a result of the UK vote to leave the EU. That also resulted in a significant £39m boost in EU direct payments to farmers. With the banks and lending institutions generally supporting farmers through the period of low farmgate prices, confidence in the industry was maintained.

This confidence enabled farmers and businesspeople to do some good deals in the land market and our survey shows that land values have increased by 8% compared to the previous year. The increase was common across the country with the exception of the west, where in Fermanagh, land prices eased back.

Price

Our land prices survey for 2016 shows that the average price for land across Northern Ireland was £9,815/acre, an increase of £729/acre or 8% on the 2015 figure. The survey covered 4,816 acres, which was down on the previous year, indicating that there was some reduction in the supply of land coming to market.

Farming picks up

For farmers, the year 2016 was, like the proverbial football match, a game of two halves. At the start of 2016, milk prices were typically 17.5pence/litre and they declined to under 17p/l by June. Since then, there has been a strong recovery and an increase of 45% pushed base milk prices up to 24.5p/l by December. Winter and other bonuses from the dairy companies gave additional money, ranging from 0.6p/l to 3p/l depending on the company.

Fat cattle prices were typically 314p/kg from January to June; then they moved up to 340p/kg by November and increased further to 350p/kg and 356p/kg by December.

For fat lambs, the spring lamb market started at 470p/kg in March and April, was maintained at 390p/kg for most of the summer and came back to 370p/kg in November and December.

The decision in the UK referendum on 23 June 2016 to vote to leave the European Union led to a substantial weakening in the value of sterling against other major currencies. One result was that the value of the Basic Payment Scheme to farmers increased by 16.5% in sterling terms and gave a boost to bank balances and to farmers’ confidence towards the end of the year.

Official figures

In the official Government figures, the total value of gross output for agriculture in 2016 was steady at £1.76bn. There was a 1% increase in the value of output from the livestock sector, although the value of horticulture and field crops fell. For the two major livestock sectors, dairy output fell by 6%, while cattle output rose by 6%.

After a very difficult year for farm finances in 2015, farm incomes for the agriculture sector measured as total income from farming (TIFF) are projected to be up 22% in 2016 (or 21% in real terms) to £244m, which is a significant increase from the £199m in 2015. TIFF is the return on the farmer’s labour, management input and the capital invested for all farms across the sector.

The improved state of the industry is confirmed by the “farm business income by farm type” figures which are based on farm accounts collected by Government as part of the NI Farm Business Survey. The survey is a representative sample of farms with more than 0.5 standard labour units.

Farm business income measured across all farm types is expected to increase from an average £14,788 in 2015/2016 to £18,943 in 2016/2017, an increase of £4,155 or 28% per farm and is due to higher subsidy receipts combined with more favourable lamb and pig prices in the 2016/2017 year.

Land price trends

Our survey for 2016 covered 192 farms and pieces of land with a total of 4,816 acres, which was a reduction in the area surveyed in 2015.

The average price, see Table 1, was £9,815, which is an increase of £729 or 8.0% compared with 2015. The result takes prices back to levels not seen since 2010, the first year of a price survey in Northern Ireland by the Irish Farmers Journal.

For the purpose of illustration, when translated into euro using a rate of €1 equals 85p, the average price in 2016 was the equivalent of €11,547/acre. This is a reduction of €102/acre on the average quoted in euro for 2015 (when the exchange rate was 78p), but the drop, rather than the increase shown in sterling terms, is due to changes in the exchange rate in 2016.

Looking at the figures, the average sized lot in the survey was 25 acres, with the median size at 20 acres. There were 126 lots of up to 25 acres; 41 lots from 25 to 49 acres; and 25 lots of 50 acres and above.

The sales process

In NI, almost all sales are by private treaty through auctioneers and estate agents, with very few sales conducted by public auction. Often, sales are for small acreages, in some cases down to a single field.

Rather than selling the farm as a whole, the farm can get broken up and sold in lots as sellers aim to maximise the total value of their property. Smaller acreages can be easier to sell and two or three buyers in the locality can satisfy their needs. And buyers can cope more easily with the finance required for a smaller acreage.

Estate agents say that full-time farmers remain the most important type of buyer but there is strong competition from farmers with other sources of income and from non-farmers with a business or other non-farm income.

As an example, a 59-acre block of good land in north Co Down offered without dwelling house or buildings sold to a purchaser with business interests in the local town. After strong, but unsuccessful competition from local farmers, the property was sold at over £14,800/acre.

In another case, a desirable farm with modern dwelling house, a set of modern farm buildings and good, well-farmed land in Co Armagh failed to sell as a whole. When divided into lots, the sale was successful with prices for the lots making close to £15,000/acre.

Hill land

Hill land commands some good prices, although the quality of the land can be very variable. In our survey, 528 acres showed an average price of £2,509/acre. This was slightly lower than our average for 2015, which was £2,684/acre. Big differences in the quality of lots, ranging from very poor hill land containing bog and with no services making £1,300/acre, to much more productive hill with services and easy access making £3,000/acre and going up to £5,500/acre for the best quality hill. This hill land was kept separate from our main land survey.

Lending institutions

The banks and other lending institutions play a key part in the land market. Overall, they are very much open for lending, provided the farmer can show clearly an ability to repay the loan. Security, most often the deeds to the property, can be lodged with the bank, and while of importance, is secondary to the borrower showing clear evidence that the debt can be serviced.

One of the major banks in NI reports that in relation to land purchases, its lending policies have not changed despite the recent difficulties in farming.

Their agri-loan repayment period is up to 20 years. They assess each case on its merits, with affordability being high up the list of criteria.

For an existing farm enterprise with a strong trading account they will consider up to 100% funding of the proposed transaction, on the basis that overall security is minimum 70% loan to value.

The bank is fully aware of the financial pressure many farmers are still experiencing across most sectors due to the challenging market conditions in the past two years. Most farmgate prices are driven by global demand, leading to volatile and cyclical markets. The bank is working with customers through the recovery period and their agri lending remains strong in early 2017.

Managing cashflow is important for any business, regardless of the sector, and when a business experiences a significant fall in margins, then short- to medium-term cashflow projections are vitally important to the long-term sustainability of the business. The bank continues to stress-test all cashflow projections including any projected increase or reduction in farm subsidies.

In terms of Brexit, the bank’s message to customers is largely one of “it’s business-as-usual”. They suggest that farmers should consider some “scenario planning”, and make use of their professional advisers.

At another bank, they observe that the resilience of farmland prices has always confounded the thinking of economists and financiers but the point often missed is that land prices are driven by many factors other than pure economics, emotion and the desire to own land being the key ones.

Experience shows that many purchasers can allow emotion to override hard economics. Lifestyle purchasers and businesspeople with money have been of significant influence in the land markets in recent times.

The bank will continue to lend to farmers for land purchase where there is sound management and sustainability of the enterprise. These are basic proven principles in any lending decision and are unlikely to change.

There has been a significant increase in farm borrowings over the last couple of years. These fall into two broad categories – to support cashflow, in particular to the dairy sector during the period of low milk prices, and for working capital, capital expenditure and land purchases. Taking the long-term view of the industry, the bank is comfortable to support most customers in this way.

However, they recognise there are businesses that have been damaged to a point where they need to make some tough decisions for the future. Having the courage to recognise the problem and take the appropriate decision is of vital importance.

The bank’s lending policy is business as usual and any proposal for borrowing should be accompanied by a realistic, sustainable repayment plan that can accommodate volatility in prices.

The year 2017 will be an interesting year in agriculture, hopefully marked by better returns from the market, but there will be rising input costs alongside the uncertainty of Brexit. Until the Brexit debate becomes clearer and reaches a conclusion, farmers’ ambition needs to be tempered with realism.

Estate agents

The market for land varies in different parts of the country. However, a common observation is that good-quality land will sell well, and in many parts, agents say that the supply of land is limited and that they have potential buyers on their books waiting for suitable land to come on the market.

For example, a Co Down auctioneer is very positive about the land market in the county. Supply is limited, lots tend to be small- to medium-sized, (a sale of over 50 acres is not common), and there is substantial interest from prospective buyers.

Prices are strong, and while £10,000/ac is the yardstick price, prices of up to £15,000/acre have been achieved.

While farmers are active buyers, an important influence in the market are buyers with business or other off-farm incomes, and the agent quotes examples of farmers being outbid by such buyers. For the buyers, land purchase is seen as a good investment and is useful in containing inheritance taxes.

On the supply side, sales arise from retirements or are from the estates of deceased owners.

For the future, while the supply of land remains limited and demand is buoyant, this auctioneer foresees little sign of any weakening in prices. The vote to leave the European Union has not, so far, made any appreciable difference to the market and there is little evidence of sales arising from any on-farm financial difficulties, despite the financial problems seen in 2015 and in the first half of 2016.

He points to land for sale in early 2017, with asking prices in the range £10,000 to £12,000 per acre.

The Irish Farmers Journal survey tracks farms and portions of land offered for sale by auctioneers and estate agents in Northern Ireland. Information is taken from newspaper adverts and from agents’ and property websites.

Auctioneers and estate agents have well-developed websites and use these as a convenient way of making property details available to prospective purchasers. Their websites are linked to industry-wide sites such as Property News, Property Pal and Zoopla.

Our survey logs details when the property reaches “sale agreed” or “sold”. Most “sale agreed” properties do complete and the property changes hands, although the process can take some time.

The types of properties our survey varies and includes:

We exclude the following:

Currency conversions

Sterling prices have been converted at the rate of £0.85 equals €1 for illustrative purposes. This differs from 2015, when the rate used was £0.78 equals €1. The average prices quoted are weighted averages, that is the total value of the land sold divided by the number of acres sold.

In Co Derry, the main range of prices was from £8,800 to £10,000/acre. The average in the county was £9,339 for 718 acres sold. The average price was up by £803/acre or 9.2% compared to 2015.

The largest farm sold was 100 acres and a former dairy farm which made £8,200/acre. There was a reasonable dwelling and yard and the land was at an elevation. The best price per acre was £14,700 in the east of the county, paid for six acres in two fields close to a village and would have a “hope value” for development some time in the future.

Good flat land in the north of the county made over £10,000/acre for a 60-acre block. Other lots in the locality made £9,500/acre.

In the east of the county, there was a good market, with prices ranging from £7,400 to £10,400/acre for lots from 20 to 60 acres, mostly for land only with good road frontage.

Co Antrim has a buoyant land market and we logged 42 farms and pieces of land selling with 1,023 acres making on average £9,395/acre.

The acreage sold was down compared with 2015 but the average price was up by £938/acre or 10.3%.

The biggest sale was in the middle of the county, with a 100-acre farm making £9,250/acre. The property had good-quality land with road frontage and a good dwelling house, but the yard was of 1970s vintage.

Other land in the south of the county made from £9,000 to £10,000/acre for blocks from 20 to 40 acres.

In the southeast of the county, a 33-acre block made £8,030/acre.

The best price was a 33.5-acre holding selling for just over £16,000/acre in the east of the county. The buyer got good land with a traditional house and superb views over the sea.

Further north in the county, land sold well. Prices ranged from £9,400 to £10,000/acre for medium-sized blocks of up to 40 acres.

The best hill land sold in mid-Antrim made to £3,400/acre.

Co Down has a substantial number of land transactions and we logged 56 sales with a total area of 1,075 acres. The average price paid was £11,201/acre. The average was up by £703 on the average price for 2015, or by 7.3%.

At the top end of the market, there were 15 sales above £12,000/acre for good blocks of land.

The best price was an exceptional £23,000/acre for a 49-acre block in the south of the county. The property was land only and the price was bid up by two farmers in strong competition with each determined to make the purchase.

The next best was £16,400/acre for a 15.5-acre block in the middle of the county. The price was for land only, of very good quality and was well fenced and with mains water to all the fields.

In the south of the county, there was a very active market and prices were buoyant, with some very good prices obtained. Prices ranged from £9,000 to just over £13,000/acre paid mostly for small acreages of up to 15 acres.

Sales of land in north Down and the Ards peninsula were mostly of smaller acreages and prices ran from £9,000 to £13,00/acre.

In Co Armagh we logged 30 lots and 550 acres. Prices averaged £11,179/acre (€13,152). In a very strong market, the average price for 2016 was up by £1,172 or 10.9% on the average for the previous year.

The best prices were in the south of the county, where lots made from £16,000 to £17,500/acre for 15 to 30 acres. Other blocks of very good land of 20 acres, parts of a farm that sold in lots, made just over £14,000/acre.

In the north of the county, land made from £9,600 to £10,000/acre.

In the east of the county, selling prices were from £9,500 to £13,000/acre for smallish lots of up to 20 acres.

Land in 50-acre lots in the centre and west of the county made from £9,000 to £9,600/acre, with a top of £13,000/acre for a good farm which sold in lots as the vendor sought to maximise the overall price.

In Co Tyrone, our survey covered 24 lots with a total of 665 acres.

The average price paid was £9,842/acre (€11,579). The average price was up by £1,424 on the 2015 average price, equivalent to an increase of 14.9%.

The best price was paid for a 41-acre lot of very good land which made just over £16,000/acre. The land was close to the town and the price included a “hope of development” value at some point in the future. Another 24-acre piece in the same locality made £15,600 with hope value also a factor in the price.

In the east of the county, there were a range of sales with prices from £9,000 to £10,000/acre.

In mid-Tyrone, there was a range of prices from £9,000 to £11,000/acre.

Hill land sold well and a 90-acre block sold for £3,300/acre in the south of the county.

In Co Fermanagh, there were 19 sales surveyed with 782 acres and the average price was £7,915/acre (€9,312). The average price was down by £338 on the previous year or 4.5%. This trend was the exception in Northern Ireland as prices in the other five counties showed increases, year over year.

The best sale made just below £11,000/acre for a property not far from Enniskillen with good-quality land and views of the lake. Other lots made from £9,000 to £10,000/acre for between 30 and 50 acres in size.

In the south of the county, 69 acres sold for just under £9,000/acre.

To the west of the county, land sold in the range £7,800 to £8,600/acre for land of reasonable quality and suitable for grazing.

The best acreage of hill land sold for £5,500/acre. Poorer hill made £2,900/acre, while bog land with no services and difficult access made £1,200 per acre.