New research shows that extreme conservation, which would protect 30% to 50% of land surface, threatens our ability to feed the world.

Scientists at the University of Aberdeen found that expanding global land area for conservation could cause food prices to rise, making it unaffordable to some, causing diseases and malnourishment.

Published in Nature Sustainability, the study modelled the potential effects of ‘extreme’ conservation that excluded human activities and strictly protected 30% and 50% of the terrestrial land surface for biodiversity.

The research found that when agriculture was displaced, global and regional food prices could become unaffordable to the poor, particularly those living in developing regions, which are likely to be worst affected by reduced food security related to stringent area-based protection.

Conversely, developed world regions are largely insulated from the negative effects.

'Essential'

Lead researcher and author Dr Roslyn Henry, from the University of Aberdeen’s school of biological sciences, who carried out much of the research while at the University of Edinburgh, explains: “Area based conservation approaches are essential for achieving biodiversity targets.

If this expansion restricts agriculture then the consequences may be felt in food production sectors

"However, they will need to be implemented with care to ensure they do not compromise food security and human health goals, particularly in vulnerable world regions.

“Global area-based targets will require extending protected areas and restoring natural land.

"If this expansion restricts agriculture then the consequences may be felt in food production sectors with reduced food provisioning potentially compromising food security goals and human health, particularly in vulnerable regions.

“While our modelling study explores the extreme end of conservation measure our analysis provides insight into potential trade-offs between strict conservation measures and global human health. Quantifying such trade-offs and impacts can aid conservation planning and negotiations.”

The collaborative study was conducted by the University of Aberdeen, the University of Edinburgh, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria and Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Germany.