It seems that the CEOs of LacPatrick, Aurivo, Glanbia, Dale Farm and Lakeland are all playing a high-stakes game of poker at the moment. Like in poker, a good player does not play his cards as much as he plays his opponents.
With Glanbia this week folding its hand by backing out of talks for LacPatrick, it might test the resolve of its opponents. While it may have disappointed those in LacPatrick, folding a hand is not a sign of weakness. Glanbia could be concerned about its ability to hold on to all of LacPatrick’s milk suppliers, which would end with it owning a white elephant in the dryer at Artigarvan.
In any case, three are still left in the game. Despite having a fairly strong hand, Dale Farm may fold next – confident it could entice some ex-Dale Farm suppliers back with its strong milk price and refocused strategy.
Aurivo’s hand may not be that strong, but it is playing its opponents with a good offer on the table.
The other players believe Lakeland has the strongest hand. Knowing this, Lakeland needs to play it cool and keep its poker face.
One problem for Lakeland is as the other players fold, their attention inevitably turns to courting the LacPatrick milk pool.
An unlikely player joined the game last week from Japan when it was announced that a ‘multi-billion’ corporation, Mitsui, were interested in the troubled co-op. This development (or a bluff in the game of poker) may be designed to induce a player with a better hand to make an improved offer.
LacPatrick, which is the proverbial pot in the centre of this poker game, must carefully study the behaviours of all the players around the table. This requires observance and patience, waiting for the correct time for each to show their hands. Unfortunately for LacPatrick, time is not on its side. Without a milk pool, a co-op is of little value. A 75% majority vote to get a deal across the line may be arbitrary if there is only one player left in this game of poker.