Leo Varadkar is now confirmed as Fine Gael leader and poised to also succeed Enda Kenny as Taoiseach. What impact is this likely to have on the shape of the Cabinet, particularly in agriculture?

It seems extremely likely that Michael Creed will remain as Minister for Agriculture, for a whole raft of reasons.

The geographical balance of the Cabinet has been upset by the impending departures of Kenny and Michael Noonan. Creed and Simon Coveney are the only Munster ministers, and there are few compelling contenders to replace them. Creed has only been in the job for little over a year, so demotion would be harsh. Finally, an election is eminently possible in the next 18 months, so minimal disruption now is needed – the Government needs to go up a gear or two.

Coveney for Tánaiste

Coveney for his part, is likely to be made Tánaiste. Varadkar cannot appoint a fellow Dub as his deputy. Coveney’s mandate from the grassroots, combined with the mainly well-spirited nature of the leadership campaign, has enhanced his position. He is likely to want to remain in planning and housing, to finish the work he has started.

So who are likely to come into Cabinet? Look to the west, with Michael Ring a near certainty, and Seán Kyne also being tipped for promotion. Regina Doherty could also be a contender.

That will probably be that for the Cabinet, although a slew of appointments at Minister of State are likely. Rural TD supporters of Varadkar hoping for promotion include Carlow/Kilkenny pair John Paul Phelan (tipped for chief whip) and Pat Deering, Michael D’Arcy (Wexford), Brendan Griffin (Kerry) and Jim Daly (Cork South West). Martin Heydon, the parliamentary party chair, is also in the conversation.

Andrew Doyle is likely to remain as a junior minister, and should stay in agriculture.

And what to make of Simon Coveney’s two-to-one victory among the party members?

It’s never just one thing, of course, but there definitely was a grassroots rebellion. Members were annoyed by the Varadkar campaign’s orchestration of the mass of early declarations among TDs and senators. It effectively ended the contest before the membership ever had a chance to play their role, and a backlash was inevitable.

Well-regarded

Simon Coveney’s well-regarded stewardship of agriculture was also a factor. The majority of Fine Gael voters are rural – more of them read the Irish Farmers Journal than The Irish Times.

They knew more of Coveney’s performance as a minister, and roundly endorsed him.