Two years ago (17 January 2017), UK prime minister Theresa May presented her government’s vision for Brexit. In that Lancaster House speech, she outlined a 12-point plan that would deliver a positive and constructive partnership between the EU and what she described as a “global Britain”. Her No 1 objective was to deliver certainty and clarity. By any objective measure, she has failed spectacularly.

With her withdrawal agreement having been overwhelmingly rejected in parliament earlier this week, the UK has been thrust into political limbo. Businesses on both sides of the Irish Sea are now scrambling to prepare for what few wanted: a no-deal Brexit.

It was never possible for Theresa May to achieve a deal that could deliver the Brexit sold to the people

How have we managed to end up in this position? With the benefit of hindsight, there was always a high risk that events would play out as they have. Why? Because the reality of what Brexit actually means was always going to catch up with the fanciful image portrayed by politicians before and after the referendum.

It was never possible for Theresa May to achieve a withdrawal deal that could deliver the vision of Brexit that was sold to the British people.

While all sorts of permutations are being discussed on the way forward, the reality is that the outcome of Brexit will be shaped by whether the leadership exists within British politics to put forward what Brexit really means. In the absence of this leadership, it is difficult to see how a no-deal Brexit can be avoided.

A second referendum, an extension to Article 50 or a Norway-style trade agreement are all being put forward as possible next steps. All are valid but none will succeed unless the vision of what Brexit actually means changes.

There is no guarantee that such a shift will take place, which is why many now believe the likelihood of the UK crashing out of the EU has increased. The impact on the Irish economy – and in particular farmers – cannot be overstated.

IFA president Joe Healy has described a no-deal Brexit scenario as “Armageddon” for farmers. In his coverage this week this week, Pat O'Toole and Phelim O’Neill put a figure on the financial impact for beef and dairy farmers of a crash-out Brexit. A collapse in beef price of €1/kg to a base of €2.50/kg is a real possibility and one that would wipe out the sector and the jobs it supports.

The message from Government is confused. On one hand, the advice is to prepare for a no-deal Brexit, yet farmers are effectively being told to hold their nerve. The reality is that farmers can do little in preparation for a no-deal Brexit – 500,000 cows are going to calve down in the next month regardless of politics.

The groundwork necessary to protect farmers’ incomes needs to be carried out at political level. To date, the Government and EU have provided positive reassurances but little in the way of solid commitments. We have now arrived at a point where both parties have to show their hands and reveal what contingency plans are in place to protect the sector.

As we have highlighted throughout the Brexit negotiations, the market support tools necessary are well developed, albeit that in recent years they have fallen out of political favour. Exports refunds, which the EU agreed to eliminate under WTO negotiations in 2015, have to be brought back on to the table. They will be critical in ensuring Ireland can access international markets competitively and product continues to move.

Intervention is only a short-term solution and one that creates a longer-term overhang in the marketplace. Whatever measures are introduced must be fully transparent to ensure they are passed back to the farmer and not absorbed by the market.

Again, we highlight the need for farm organisations, agribusinesses and all those who depend on farmers for incomes to speak with one voice on what is the biggest issue to face the sector and rural Ireland in over a generation. The industry must unite to force Government and Brussels to deliver a plan B that will protect farmers’ incomes and rural jobs.

Hannah Quinn Mulligan reports that The Lancet, a medical journal, carries a feature in its latest edition claiming that eating what it considers to be too much meat is worse for health than drug abuse.

The Lancet has a long tradition of hostility to animal-based proteins, but there is volumes of research that supports their role as part of a balanced diet.

We are fortunate to live in an age when life expectancy has never been higher in the developed world and global food poverty, while still an issue in a number of areas in the world, is nowhere near as widespread as it was in the 20th century.

Achieving a balanced diet should be everybody’s objective but a communication that ties risk from meat consumption to that of drug abuse achieves a sensational story without balanced, useful advice.

In recent weeks, we have been presented with warnings of a global economic slowdown.

All eyes are naturally focusing on China, which is thought to have accounted for around 30% of world economic growth over the past decade.

As the Bord Bia figures highlighted last week, Irish farmers are not immune to these global trends.

Not only does Chinese demand now influence the global market for pig and poultry meat, cereals and – to an increasing extent – beef, it directly accounts for 50% of Ireland’s infant formula exports.

It is important that the sector keeps abreast of the extent to which consumer trends may be changing in such an important market.

So far this year, the weather has been kind to farmers with most parts of the country experiencing below average rainfall and above average temperatures.

Farmers with catch crops are really benefiting with good utilisation and animal performance. Ground conditions are also ideal for field work with slurry spreading and cultivation work ramping up.

After 12 to 18 months of challenging conditions, it is great to see the weather playing ball.

Also this week, the agribusiness team looks at the big businesses investing in plant-based proteins. Despite its portrayal, this is not an artisan food sector but one backed by hundreds of millions of dollars of investment from celebrities, businesses and pension funds.

We also look at how an animal sanctuary in Co Meath has seen its income soar in recent years to over €1.25m, with no disclosure as to where it was derived.

The vast majority of its expenditure went on the Go Vegan World advertising campaign. Transparency is essential so that people know who is supporting these campaigns.

The comments this week by An Taoiseach Leo Varadkar that he has reduced red meat consumption on health and environmental grounds can at best be described as ill-advised. No one can dispute his right to make decisions on dietary habits, but he must be conscious that his words and actions carry much more weight.