Our series of conferences over the past week focusing on global trade exposed the level of uncertainty and market challenges that lie ahead for the agri food sector – north and south of the border.

There were a number of standout points from the events in Belfast and Dublin. In Belfast, the extent to which British and Northern Irish farmers are exposed to the fallout of Brexit was made clear. As we report, an analysis by the London-based consultants Andersons shows that a hard Brexit would effectively wipe out beef and sheep production in Britain – a 400-acre unit would generate a total profit margin of just £1,200 by 2025.

The income collapse largely reflects the importance of CAP payments in the income equation and the fact that outside the EU, supports to British farmers are forecast to be reduced by 50%. With CAP payments making up at least 100% of British farm income in 22 of the last 25 years, the fact so many farmers voted to leave an EU that was underpinning their income clearly shows the disconnect with CAP – a disconnect that is not restricted to just British farmers.

The British dairy sector was shown to be more resilient in a hard Brexit scenario, largely due to the fact that 50% of production was consumed in the domestic market as liquid milk.

Northern Ireland dairy farmers do not have the same security with just 20% production in the liquid milk category and with 30% processed south of the border – clearly leaving the sector far more exposed.

Some might see the collapse of British agriculture as an opportunity for Ireland. But a more likely outcome is a scenario where any drop in domestic production is offset by increased volumes of food imports from counties such as Brazil, Argentina, Australia and New Zealand – all facilitated through free trade agreements that would see the British market effectively adopt an open source policy with any trading partner with a capacity to meet set production standards. It is the worst-case scenario for British and Irish farmers.

The range of presentations over the course of the two days also exposed the added complication of the north-south border – through which €1m worth of trade passes every hour of every day. While we have heard reassurances of a seamless border, no one has been in a position to explain how this might operate effectively.

While the potential for tariffs to derail normal trading relationships and price competitiveness have been well highlighted, the impact of non-tariff barriers has not received the same attention. The reality is that even in a tariff-free scenario, the cost of non-tariff barriers could have serious implications – estimated to increase trading costs by up to 8%. The potential impact of this 8% needs to be considered in the context that food production and processing is an extremely low-margin business.

In his address to delegates at our Dublin conference on Friday, European Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan gave the commitment to be “fearlessly on the farmers’ side” in tackling issues around Brexit and CAP – a useful benchmark against which to measure future performance.

The positive overtures from Commissioner Hogan and the Department of Agriculture secretary general Aidan O’Driscoll, that discussions have taken place on the need for a Brexit aid package for the agri food sector, is positive – albeit long overdue. We are finally starting to see politics respond to the Brexit fallout.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand high commissioner to Britain and Ireland Sir Lockwood Smith certainly challenged conventional thinking with his pro-free trade attitude and the belief that agriculture would be better served in the absence of direct supports. It is a view that of course ignores the fact that New Zealand was forced to abandon farm supports in 1984 as the country faced economic collapse and the social displacement that took place in wake of the decision.

The argument also ignores the role of CAP in underpinning 44m jobs across Europe and in delivering food produced to the highest environmental and animal welfare standards in the world.

Nevertheless, we would be wrong to ignore how in New Zealand the restless focus on efficiency delivered for farmers. We must accept the fact that CAP has bred inefficiencies into our production system and learn from the mistakes of the past.