It is time for some straight talking on the future of our national suckler herd. Neither Brussels nor Dublin can continue to keep farmers in the dark on their secret long-term plan for the Irish suckler sector – which now appears to be forcing a major reduction in suckler cow numbers.
Of course the plan to reduce suckler cow numbers is not new. It dates back over a decade when the strategy was to drive down suckler numbers by reducing supports for the sector, and in turn undermining economic viability.
The decision to scrap the REPS programme was a key move followed by the wind-down of the suckler cow welfare scheme. While GLAS and the BDGP have been introduced, neither deliver the economic dividend to farmers when compared to the schemes that went before them.
Coupled payment refused
But perhaps the most telling of all has been the continuous refusal of successive Governments to ringfence support for the suckler cow through a coupled payment scheme under the CAP. The end result has been a rapid decline in the level of financial support provided to suckler farmers over the past decade – some suckler farmers have seen payments drop by the equivalent of a €1 for every kilo of beef produced off the farm.
However, much to the disappointment of many within Dublin and Brussels, suckler cow numbers have failed to drop in line with forecasts. Some had predicted that in a decoupled production environment with lower supports, the national suckler herd would drop to fewer than 650,000 cows by 2020.
The plan of death by a thousand cuts has not yielded the expected outcome
With the national suckler herd continuing to run at over 900,000 cows, the plan of death by a thousand cuts has not yielded the expected outcome. There is no doubt that a rapidly growing dairy herd, alongside what is seen by many as a painfully slow reduction in suckler cow numbers, is creating real headaches in Dublin and Brussels given the intense focus on agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in the context of climate change.
The solution now appears to be to actually force farmers out of sucklers in a bid to rebalance the size of the national herd. The most obvious example of this more aggressive strategy was the last-minute move by the European Commission to restrict access to the €100m Brexit beef fund to farmers who reduce stock numbers.
Paying farmers to get out of production
We can expect that the €1bn restructuring fund announced yesterday as part of the Mercosur trade deal will be heavily focused on paying suckler farmers to get out of production.
Few could argue that growing the national dairy herd to its potential makes sense for farmers and the wider economy. Compared to the other livestock sectors, the economic return is far superior. However, the economic contribution that our national suckler sector makes to town and villages throughout rural Ireland is well established and cannot be ignored.
Furthermore, the environmental sustainability of a production model whereby the suckler cow grazing on marginal land turns a low-value rough fibre source into a luxury meat protein has to be acknowledged in the context of growing food demand. This is a very different model to tying up large tracts of high-quality arable land to produce grains that are diverted from human consumption into feeding pigs and poultry.
What is the plan for this marginal-type land post sucker cows?
Farmers in the dark
Of course, arguments can be put forward to support both sides of the debate. However, a proper debate cannot even take place while Brussels and Dublin keep farmers in the dark on their master plan. It is time to come clean and allow for a plan that would lead to such a fundamental change to our agricultural sector to be properly debated and the consequences for rural Ireland and the wider economy fully understood.
Key will be for both Dublin and Brussels to outline in detail what the plan will be for the 55,0000 jobs that the suckler sector supports, how the economic activity will be replaced and how the marginal land currently used for suckling will be utilised.
Mercosur to take our emissions?
There is no doubt that farmers will be suspicious that the decision this week to grant the Mercosur trading block increased access to the EU market for an additional 100,000t of South American beef reflects the strategy to force Irish farmers out of suckling.
Is the ultimate plan to reduce the national suckler herd in Ireland over the next five to seven years to a level that addresses our unique emissions profile, and creates a demand within the EU for the additional 100,000t of South American beef agreed under the Mercosur trade deal?
This would be in line with past European policy to outsource polluting industries to emerging countries, in the way steel mills were moved to Asia and our plastics shipped for recycling to China – until Beijing recently slammed the door on this dirty trade, resulting in higher fees at bring centres for silage wrap.
If this is the case the financial impact will be much greater than the €1bn currently on the table. Farm organisations must ensure that both Dublin and Brussels are now forced to come clean and lay out their vision for suckler beef production so that a proper discussion on the future of this important sector can be discussed.
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