Deep cuts to the CAP budget would have a direct effect on farm incomes, particularly for "vulnerable sectors", a major EU commission analysis has found.

The document, launched on Wednesday by Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, set out a variety of scenarios for the next EU budget. The overall EU and CAP budget for 2020-2027 is due to be agreed by the heads of state in May. The CAP has been receiving a steadily shrinking proportion of the overall EU budget, and suffered a cut in real terms for the first time in the last budget framework agreed under the chairmanship of then-Taoiseach Enda Kenny.

That was before the refugee/migrant crisis or Brexit, but the recession still held European economies in it's grip. Ireland is one of only nine EU counties who are net contributors to the EU budget.

The document runs through three scenarios, which are as follows:

  • Maintain current CAP spending levels. This would require 37% of the current budget.
  • Cut the CAP budget by 30%. This "could see average farm incomes drop by more than 10%", with potentially more pronounced income drops in specific sectors.
  • Cut the CAP budget by 15%. This could still have a "noticeable impact in certain sectors," the report says.

    • 'Big test'

    "Under no circumstances can Ireland accept any of the options set out. They would shut down agriculture and rural Ireland," said IFA president Joe Healy. He described the mission ahead of both Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Commissioner Phil Hogan as "a big test".

    "Ireland cannot contemplate anything other than an increase in the CAP budget".

    Meanwhile, a Brussels source said: "There is no question that there will be a reduction, the fight will be around the size of the cut."

    Read more

    Calls for bigger budget at first CAP reform meeting

    Editorial: is CAP worth the price of a coffee?

    Full coverage: CAP 2020