I have always admired and respected David Cameron, but as a dairy farmer, I view with trepidation events currently playing out in Europe. Cameron is playing the poker game of his life.
It is possible that a Brexit (an exit of Britain from the EU) will have a greater effect on British farming than Mrs Thatcher’s hand-bagging of European officials, which left us farmers disadvantaged against the rest of the EU.
The average Joe public has little knowledge of the ramifications of an exit or the advantages of staying in. Change costs and there was a cost to going in and there will be a huge cost to coming out. The out campaign seems to be hijacked by a patriotic minority, with most of the British public occupying the unsure middle ground.
This could swing either way and it would be a tragedy if they were to vote out, purely because not to do so would be seen as a lack of patriotism.
Keeing shopping costs low
Ever since the last war, the British government has been fixated with keeping the cost of the shopping basket as low as possible, using subsidies, legislation and imported foods. I don’t see this changing. In fact, it could get worse.
Food security is a phrase glibly banded about but there is no sign of action being taken. When cheap imported Canadian wheat decimated British agriculture in the early 1900s, causing the great agricultural depression, the government did nothing until 1939 when the declaration of war meant we had to feed the nation.
Subsidies
Subsidies by the British government, replaced by those from the EU, meant that we could at least make a living.
I view a reversion back to government subsidies with nothing but foreboding. The government is currently turning a blind eye to the decline in the fortunes of the dairy industry. It is failing to see the broader picture of the knock-on effect on ancillary industries.
Think how much money goes through a farm in a year and how much is retained to invest and live on. If you want a new shed or a new tractor at the moment, you can write your own deal – even the vets are shedding staff.
Although the banks are pausing on calling in overdrafts, not wishing to create the domino effect, they are blind to the depth of the problem, because they are unaware of how far farmers have gone into merchants’ credit.
It is easy for the government to sit on its hands in the current crisis. After all, a natural financial cull of overexposed dairy farmers will restore the balance in the current oversupply of milk, but many of these are the young and energetic who have borrowed, expanded and invested. The very ones that the industry needs will be the first casualties.
Cameron says Brexit is a ‘leap in the dark’ as referendum date set for 23 June