Depressed pig prices from 2017 and into the first half of 2019 meant a decline in production in Ireland and the other major pigmeat-producing countries in the EU last year.

Irish pig supplies were down 58,000 head to 3.788m head, from 3,846m the previous year, a fall of 1.5%.

It was the same on the continent, with Germany back 2.2%, which would have been higher but for piglet imports from Denmark where production was down 7%. Both Poland and Romania were down 4.5%, driven largely by the presence of African swine fever (ASF).

Irish exports

Irish exports are estimated for 2019 at 254,000t - 10,000t less than the previous year. The UK is still the largest export market for Ireland, taking 91,000t of the higher value products, with China next, taking 82,000t.

Production in China is decimated, with output down from 54m tonnes in 2018 to 27m tonnes. Rebuilding in Chinese production will commence in the second half of 2020, but imports are forecast to increase to 2.8m tonnes by 2025.

China is forecast to have fallen to 92% of self-sufficiency by that point, compared with 96% in 2018 when it imported 1.4m tonnes of pigmeat.

Poultry

EU prices fell slightly by 0.5% in 2019, as EU production increased 2% to 12.5m tonnes plus 780,000t imported. China is looking to poultry to offset the drop in pigmeat supplies and production is forecast to increase by 2m tonnes with huge imports as well from Brazil, in particular, with the USA also now having access.

Ireland isn't approved to export poultry meat to China, though France, Hungary and Germany are thought to be close to securing access.