This week’s US election may elect a different president if opinion polls are correct, but the polls got it badly wrong last time, so there is still a chance of President Trump being re-elected.
As the world’s second-largest economy after China and a huge global trader in grain and agri food, the impact of a US president is felt well beyond the borders of the USA.
Why are US farmers pro-Trump?
Traditionally, the states with a large farmer base vote Republican, whereas the traditional Democrat vote is drawn from the industrial regions.
President Trump’s trade spat with his neighbours Canada and Mexico, plus China, hit exports particularly hard, but farmers were protected by a $28bn compensation fund for 2018-19.
President Trump also put in place a huge fund of $36bn in May this year to support farmers from COVID-19 losses and any lingering trade losses.
These will be dramatically reduced this year, as the US now has agreements in place with Mexico, Canada and China, which has led to a recovery in export sales.
Where does Biden stand in relation to US farming?
While farmers may not be his natural constituency, it is unlikely that there will be any major policy in at least the short term, but, in the medium or longer term, he may be less generous with government support.
However, he is expected to be a bridge builder in international relations, so the risks of further trade wars are likely to recede under a Biden presidency, making international markets stronger for US exports.
If Trump is re-elected, what will it mean for US farmers?
A second Trump presidency would mean more of the same - this was the view of Darci Vetter in an Irish Farmers Journal webinar last week.
That means a high risk of more trade spats and likely requirement for generous government support by way of compensation.
What would Biden do if he is elected?
A Biden presidency is committed to much greater state intervention to tackle coronavirus.
Internationally, a Biden presidency will look to rebuild relationships with international allies, particularly in Europe, where President Trump has had strained relations.
During his term as vice-president between 2008 and 2016, the US were particularly active in trade negotiations, concluding a deal with Pacific Rim countries in the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and negotiating with the EU in TTIP.
President Trump withdrew the US from the TPP and stopped the negotiation with the EU. A Biden presidency would be more inclined to trade deals.
Will it make any difference to Irish farmers?
The EU is hoping that a Biden presidency would work to resolve the Airbus Boeing compensation dispute and remove the tariffs President Trump imposed following the WTO ruling against the EU for supporting Airbus.
They have since ruled against the US for supporting Boeing, but the EU have withheld imposing tariffs as they are entitled to do until after the election.
Trumps penalty tariffs on EU farmers have a direct impact on Irish dairy farmers because this was a sector on which he chose to impose a 25% tariff.
In 2019, Ireland exported dairy products to the value of €343m to the USA, of which €190m was butter.
Adding a 25% tariff makes Irish dairy produce less competitive in US markets and it would be a win for dairy farmers if a Biden presidency moved quickly to its removal.