Demand for land is expected to go into overdrive as the European Commission looks set to reduce the maximum stocking rate for nitrates derogation farmers from 1 January 2024.

An Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report has indicated that most of the country will be subject to a new maximum stocking rate of 220kg organic N/ha, despite protests from across the industry that the move will have no significant effect on water quality.

Farm organisations and Dairy Industry Ireland have condemned the EPA report, while senior Teagasc experts and even the Department of Agriculture itself have conceded publicly that the move will do little to improve water quality but will cut dairy farm profits by up to 29%.

While the number of farms directly affected by the derogation change is estimated to be around 3,000, the subsequent distortion of the land market is likely to hit all farms.

Demand for land for sale and lease is expected to soar as dairy farmers will move to dilute their stocking rates, pushing prices up and forcing tillage and drystock farmers out of the market.

IFA analysis has suggested that dairy farmers would need to access an extra 28,000ha to avoid culling 50,000 cows.