The issue of an EU trade deal with Mercosur seems to come to the top of the news agenda every few months, only to disappear back into limbo again.

It has been this way since negotiations opened in 1999 and therefore, like Brexit, there is something of a weariness when the issue is raised again.

However, like Brexit it is a potential trade deal that could wipe out beef and sugar production in the EU, with beef being the particular interest to Irish farmers.

Why now?

The reality is that the main negotiation on Mercosur was completed years ago and the issues preventing a deal are well known.

For the EU, it is about getting access to the South American countries for cars, car parts, other machinery, pharmaceutical, dairy and recognition of EU geographical indicators (GIs). For the South Americans, the issue is all about beef and sugar access.

A deal was particularly close in late 2017/early 2018 and didn’t happen because of internal disagreement between the South American countries on the products the EU wanted access to the South American market for – "offensive interests" in trade negotiation jargon.

This immediately took the pressure off the EU in granting access for beef and sugar and the line was held on these “defensive interests”, which suited Irish and EU farmers well.

Mood for deal

In recent weeks, as President Bolsonaro has settled into office and Argentina and Uruguay get ready for elections in the autumn, there has been a renewed focus on a deal with the EU.

In the EU itself, this has been one of the most active periods in successful trade negotiations, with the Japanese deal being the highlight to date.

This commission is entering its final weeks, with 31 October its departure date.

There is a huge desire to round off this term by finally cracking the South American deal which has drifted for so many years.

So now, ahead of the summer holidays and the wind down in the autumn, there is a final window of opportunity to close the deal with Mercosur.

Interestingly, Commissioner for Agriculture Phil Hogan is now on record as saying that there could be a deal in the coming week in the right circumstances.

By this, he means the South Americans giving the access the EU is asking on its offensive interests and being realistic on the level of access they can get to the EU in return for beef and sugar.

At present, the formal EU offer is 70,000t of beef but informally it is thought the EU is willing to go as far as 99,000t of beef and 200,000t of sugar.

Interestingly, the Commissioner highlighted the need for the South Americans to be realistic on their ambitions and highlighted that any deal would have to been approved not just by the EU Parliament but by the member states as well and even some regions of the EU.

In 2016, the Canadian deal (CETA) was almost blown off course at the last moment by the regional Wallonia parliament in Belgium refusing to accept it.

What can stop a deal?

Last time we were this close, it was the Mercosur countries themselves that came to the rescue. They divided mong themselves on giving the EU access on their offensive interests and the deal was off.

That could happen again but it is less likely this time as the South Americans seem to have made the running.

National governments could also torpedo a deal but with Ireland leaning on the EU for Brexit support, that would be a tough stance for the Dublin government to take

The European Parliament will be interesting. What will the increased green membership make of a trade deal that gives huge beef access to a country that will utilise that opportunity by clearing more forest and savanna land to exploit the opportunity?

In May of this year alone, Brazil cleared an area the size of Co Leitrim. National governments could also torpedo a deal but with Ireland leaning on the EU for Brexit support, that would be a tough stance for the Dublin government to take.

Finally, there is the hope that the EU will be persuaded to link any offering made to Brexit.

The UK has indicated a willingness to throw its market open to 230,000t of beef from across the world in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Surely the least the EU can do is reflect this in any deal they may conclude ahead of Brexit. Logic and standards would suggest the EU should not be doing business with South America on the scale suggested for beef and sugar access.

However, the drive for another big trade deal could be irresistible as so many EU countries and industrial sectors would gain at the expense of the beef and sugar sectors.

The Irish Farmer’s Journal will be in Brussels next week to report on developments as they happen.