While Irish beef exports to the US resumed for the first time in two decades last year, it has failed to become a high-volume beef export market, taking just 1,381t from us this year up to end of August.
Putting this in context in the same period the Philippines took 7,086t and Hong Kong 9,169t. Exports beyond the EU account for 3% to 4% of Ireland’s total, while lamb is currently awaiting approval for the US and doesn’t feature at all.
Therefore, it is difficult to see what impact the US presidential election outcome will have on our farmers.
Falling US cattle prices – by over €2/kg equivalent from record highs in May last year – have been a factor, as well as the delay in agreeing a certificate for import of manufacturing beef, the main import requirement of the US.
Australia and New Zealand are the main suppliers, sending almost 600,000t of beef between them to the US in 2015. Brazil had a much publicised return to the US market in recent weeks, but reports from South America this week suggest they cannot afford to do business in the US, with prices for imported lean manufacturing beef being worth $3.80/kg (€3.45/kg) which is below the ¢4.20/kg (€3.80/kg) Brazilian farmers need.
As for quotas and TTIP, Ireland was working from a 64,000t quota that was shared with Brazil, among others.
It was expected that, despite the current market hiccup Brazilian farmers would use this themselves meaning Irish exporters would then have to pay a 26% import tariff which would make trade even more difficult. Even before the election, no US administration was going to give Ireland or the EU a quota deal outside TTIP.
TTIP was described in Brussels recently as dead in the water and Trump’s hostility to free trade deals was a feature of his campaign.
Irish beef exports to the US prior to the election had been pretty irrelevant in the overall context of our sales.
It was envisaged as an outlet for high end premium non-hormone beef at the outset, with an opportunistic manufacturing possibility when their prices are high. It hasn’t happened and the election outcome won’t do anything to encourage further trade growth, though in practice it won’t change anything either.
For the Irish beef Industry, it is Brexit that is the vote with catastrophic potential.
Listen: what a Trump presidency means for farmers