Supply remains the main driver of sentiment in grain markets, but we are now in a definite weather market.

Last week’s USDA report indicated higher-than-estimated end-of-season stock levels. There were also increased estimates for EU wheat production, but there was mixed opinions on maize output in Brazil, where dryness is an increasing concern.

The Brazilian government announced the removal of import taxes on maize earlier this week. This is due to increasing fears of tighter local supplies, but high recent exports also contributed to the reduced supply.

International wheat and maize prices have risen steadily on the back of this news, but there is also increased awareness of weather difficulties in other countries. Early maize planting has progressed very well in parts of the US, but this opens the fear of frost damage post-emergence.

While there is little to justify any sustained upward price swing, there is increased market nervousness. But the recent bullish sentiment in soyabeans may be benefiting grain prices.

Native prices are up a euro or two, especially for new crop. Spot and nearby wheat is currently put at €154 to €155/t, with about €10 less for barley. November wheat is now €163 to €165/t.

The slight rise in prices has seen Glanbia offer its growers €164/t for dry wheat for November and €152/t for barley.