Grain prices in general moved down this week, though not by major amounts.
To put some perspective on prices, Matif wheat for December 2024 closed last week at €233.75/t, down approximately €5/t on the week.
It gained slightly this week and was at €235.25/t on Wednesday afternoon.
Wheat exports from the US had helped to support markets in recent weeks, but overall there is plenty of maize in the market and forecast to come, so that is putting pressure on prices.
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) in the UK is negative on prices for the next few months. However, it did give some support to markets.
It stated: “Downwards pressure was limited [last week] by a slight rise in Russian grain prices, concerns over northern hemisphere new crop plantings and news of a rise in export tax on wheat and maize in Argentina.”
It is understood that those export taxes would rise from 12% to 15% on wheat and maize exports from Argentina.
Dryness in Brazil
Dryness in Brazil remains a watchpoint for soya beans and maize.
The Safrinha maize crop is due to be planted in Brazil in the new year, from January to the beginning of March. However, planting will slow if ground remains dry.
Safrinha means ‘little’, but the Safrinha maize crop actually accounts for approximately 75% of the country’s maize production.
Conab, the national supply company under the ministry of agriculture in Brazil, is reported to have estimated a decrease of 5% in maize area to 52 million acres and a reduction in production of 10% to over 4.6m tonnes.
UK production
Defra released its final estimates for the UK’s cereal and oilseed rape yields and production last week.
Spring barley yields were estimated down 11% to 5.5t/ha, winter barley down 5% to 7t/ha, wheat down 5% to 8.1t/ha, oats down 14% to 5t/ha and oilseed rape down 17% to 3.1t/ha.
Wheat production was down 10%, barley down 6%, oats down 18% and oilseed rape down 11%.
Oilseed rape
Nearby and long-term oilseed rape prices dropped at similar rates in France.
On Friday 15 December, Matif oilseed rape for February closed at €431/t and November oilseed rape closed at €442.75/t, down by €10.50/t and €8/t respectively.
The French ministry of agriculture and food has estimated that winter rapeseed planting is at 1.35m hectares, up 5% from last year.