Ornua has said that the global dairy trade will be affected by US tariffs and subsequent trade wars in 2025.In its market report for March, the co-op said that US tariffs will negatively affect trade and demand.
Ornua has said that the global dairy trade will be affected by US tariffs and subsequent trade wars in 2025.
In its market report for March, the co-op said that US tariffs will negatively affect trade and demand.
Tariffs could lead to a cut in interest rates and a weaker US dollar, making it more expensive to export products, such as Kerrygold butter, stateside.
“The impact of these tariffs on global dairy trade is currently unclear.
“History indicates they will have a negative effect, though some commodities will be affected more than others,” it said.
Milk supply
Global milk supply in January was flat in 2024, increasing by just 0.1% for the month.
This was comprised of an estimated fall of 1.2% in EU milk collections, declines in Australian production and an 8% drop in Chinese milk production, with reports suggesting that milk volumes are contracting sharply.
In the US, milk output was “muted” in January, but supply was stronger when adjusted for milk solids, Ornua said.
Milk production in Argentina was up 5.6% and New Zealand milk output was up 2.6%. Ornua noted that production in New Zealand was supported by favourable weather and a strong milk price.
Globally, annual growth is unlikely to exceed 0.5%, it said, although milk solids may be stronger. This growth will come mainly from the US and New Zealand, as there is limited scope for European expansion.
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