Grain Trends: soya price explodes but no jump on wheat

Wheat prices fell lower in the past week, while soya prices have exploded.

French wheat for December dropped €8/t last week to €232.25/t and hit a low of €229.50/t on Tuesday 31 October.

That’s the lowest price since 31 May this year, although the market is coming to a close soon. The December 2024 price was at €239.50/t on Tuesday.

Competitive wheat from the Black Sea region continues to pressure prices down.

Speaking at the Barnett Hall conference last week, economist Dan Basse of AgResource Company suggested that wheat prices could be $40 to $60/t higher today if Russia’s wheat wasn’t being pumped on to the market and Ukraine wasn’t selling cheaper.

However, until these supplies dwindle prices are likely to stay capped, as they have been for weeks, below €240/t and mostly around €235/t for December 2023 French wheat.

Soya

The price of soya coming into the country has exploded in recent weeks. At the beginning of October, soya ex-port was approximately €500/t. This week it is at €570/t.

Supplies are tight. In recent weeks, we spoke about Argentina importing soya beans to keep processing plants working. The country’s soya bean yields were halved last season due to extreme drought.

However, in the coming season, Brazil is projected to produce 163 million tonnes of soya beans and Argentina 48 million tonnes, leading to a record world crop of about 400 million tonnes, according to Basse.

When these crops are due to come on the market in April or so next year, prices are moving to below €500/t here. However, it is important to keep an eye on weather in Brazil, as planting is happening now.

Dry weather has delayed some work, but rain is forecast in the north of the country, which will help with crop establishment.

In the meantime, the US harvest continues at pace, with 85% harvested as of 29 October, but supplies in the market remain tight. See more from the conference on pages 2&13.

Oilseed rape

Oilseed rape prices for August and November 2024 were at €446.75/t and €453/t respectively at the end of last week. They were increasing slightly at the beginning of this week.

The malting barley France Free-On-Board Creil price (July basis) increased from €283/t to €302/t last week and held its position this week. Poor quality across Europe may be playing into the market.

Native prices

At home prices for spot wheat are ranging from the low €230s to €240/t. Spot barley is running €10/t behind.