There hasn’t been much time for anyone associated with Irish farming to celebrate the renewal of the nitrates derogation. Straight away we have Government, opposition, MEPs and farm organisations focused on not one, but two massive issues with long-term implications: Mercosur and CAP.

While CAP has got fewer column inches than either the derogation or Mercosur, the proposals currently on the table would take hundreds of millions of euros away from Irish farmers’ incomes every year.

Thursday’s European Council meeting is a chance for Micheál Martin and his fellow heads of government to consider the budget proposals of Ursula von der Leyen and Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin. If the savage CAP cuts are to be overturned, the hard yards need to start somewhere; it’s probably as good a place as anywhere.

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Mercosur is coming to a head at a most inopportune time in that regard. That deal currently hangs in the balance, with Poland and Hungary openly opposed, France and Italy wanting to kick this 25-year-old can a few months further down the road, and Ireland and Austria understood to also be opposed, but yet to make their position clear.

There is an understanding in Brussels of just how difficult it is for Ireland, as one of the largest beef exporters in the EU, to swallow Mercosur.

But there is also the conflicting expectation that Ireland will show some gratitude for the nitrates derogation, and fall into line a little.

The fact that the Irish Farmers Journal/IFA investigation has highlighted the ongoing gap in standards, just as the parallel investigation back in 2007 did, gives fuel to those calling for a delay in implementation of the Mercosur trade deal.

But it also fuels resentment among some in the Commission. Some Brussels insiders are saying that Ireland prioritised the derogation over stopping Mercosur.

That would pose problems for Government. There have been similar stories circulating within political circles in Dublin in recent days.

The big issue for Government is that if they publicly oppose Mercosur, and France leads a blocking minority, the two biggest proponents of protecting CAP payments will be on the wrong side of the fence with the Commission.

The other big hitters when it comes to the budget, particularly Germany, Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden, are strongly in favour of ratifying and implementing Mercosur straightaway.

IFA president Francie Gorman leads a strong Irish delegation protesting alongside farmers from all over Europe on Thursday. But right now, it doesn’t seem politically achievable to get both a significantly improved CAP budget and to block Mercosur.

We are in Meat Loaf territory now. The nitrates derogation has been secured, and it may be two out of three for farmers and no more.

And if CAP is the loser, that would be pretty bad, especially when CAP accounts for most of the income of most Irish farmers most years.