Lowest sheep kill in over a decade

Sheep throughput for the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 is running at just 524,304 head, the lowest level recorded for over a decade.

The kill is running a massive 153,423 head or 23% lower than in 2024.

Hogget throughput has recorded the greatest numerical reduction, falling by 137,683 head or 23% on 2024 levels, while the ewe and ram kill has recorded a higher percentage fall of 36%.

It should also be noted that throughput in Q1 of 2024 was also under pressure relative to previous years and reduced by almost 25,000 head or 3.5%.

The sharp fall in throughput in 2025 is stemming from two main areas – the consequence of the breeding ewe flocks falling by approximately 100,000 head and much higher lamb mortality.

2025 forecast

While the breeding ewe flock is likely to have again fallen by upwards of 100,000 ewes when the results of the 2024 sheep census are released, it is not expected that the reduction in lamb numbers will be on a par with 2024, given more favourable lambing conditions.

Farmers and industry commentators report lamb mortality running anywhere from 2% to upwards of 5% on average below 2024 levels, with current conditions particularly favouring outdoor lambing flocks.

This could help bolster throughput in the second half of the year and minimise the shortfall in the 2025 lamb crop.

In the short term it is likely that throughput will continue to lag well below 2024 throughput levels, with some predicting throughput could fall by in excess of 200,000 head in the first half of 2025.