The extent of continued Irish dependence on the British market for beef exports is confirmed by Bord Bia data which shows that in the first half of 2022, half of all beef exports went there – the highest in recent years.

However, there is trouble ahead. As consumer inflation takes hold, we can expect supermarkets to squeeze their suppliers and look at how their supply chains can offer cheaper product.

The recent announcement by Brazilian giant Minerva of its partnership with Hilton in the UK is an example of how processors are open to a global sourcing policy. Hilton is a major supplier of Tesco, which currently has a policy of using only British and Irish beef, but this can change.

There is also the Brexit effect, which is imminent as the UK government proceeds with parliamentary approval of the trade deals with Australia and New Zealand. This will create unprecedented access for Australian beef and lamb, plus New Zealand beef, lamb and dairy to the UK market from later this year or early 2023.

They will take time to build market share and are not near enough for just-in-time delivery strategies. They do, however, have an ace in the price of their product which they make no secret of targeting towards the imported markets, not domestic UK production.

This makes Irish exports a target and will be the first direct consequence of Brexit on Irish farmers.