Grain prices came back down from their brief climb this week.

For example, Matif wheat for December closed at €191.50/t on Friday, down €1.50/t in the week and back from a peak last week of €194.75/t. On Wednesday afternoon, it was at €189.50/t.

At home, spot wheat was reported at around €215/t or less dried and barley was at about €210/t dried.

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Currency

Currency looks to be a driving factor. On 28 October, €1 was worth US$1.17. On 4 November, the euro weakened to a value of US$1.15.

As the euro weakened against the dollar, it helped to make European prices more competitive and grain prices climbed slightly.

The euro strengthened against the dollar this week at a value of US$1.16 and prices have fallen back again.

In terms of currency, if European grain prices are to be competitive, then the euro needs to weaken against the dollar. European prices are also competing with exports from the Black Sea, according to the AHDB in the UK.

Currency is always a player in the market, but it’s not often that farmers notice its impact as much as they have in recent weeks.

The grain supply is large, so with little to drive prices up, the impact of currency is more noticeable.

US harvest

Reuters reported that the US maize harvest, originally predicted to be a record, is estimated to be 92% complete, slightly behind the same time last year. Production is also estimated back on the USDA’s September estimate. A supply and demand report is expected on Friday of this week.

United Nations

The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) said world cereal stocks are set to reach record high levels.

Cereal production for 2025 is forecast at 2.99m tonnes, up 4.4% from 2024. Cereal utilisation is estimated at 2,929Mt, up 1.8% from 2024/2025. The cereal price index declined 1.3% from September.

“Outputs of all major cereals are anticipated to rise, with the largest year-on-year increase forecast for maize and the smallest for rice,” the report outlined.

“The growth is expected to result mainly from ample supplies and lower prices. Feed use of cereals is expected to rise by 2.1 percent, with major producers such as Brazil and the United States directing more maize to animal rations.”

It also reported feed-quality milling wheat could see demand from aquaculture in Asia and that uses of cereals, particularly maize, are also set to increase.