The International Grains Council once again increased its 2025/2026 global wheat production forecast. It increased the previous estimate by 8m tonnes, bringing the new estimate to 819m tonnes.

On Friday 19 September, Boortmalt set their green barley price at €208.95/t. This price is an average of the Free-on-Board (FOB) Creil price over the course of the growing season, with a €10/t handling and drying charge deducted from this average.

There is a bonus of €10/t for distilling barley, bringing the price to €218.95/t. These prices are significantly lower than in 2024, when the brewing barley price was €247.69/t and the distilling price was at €257.69/t.

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Some farmers will have locked in up to 40% of their contracted tonnage earlier in the season at prices of €230/t and €240/t, which will help to mitigate the impact of the low prices on these farmers.

The European Union’s MARS crop monitoring bulletin for September was published this week. It confirmed that “drought and repeated heatwaves during summer in south-eastern Europe has led to irreversible yield losses in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and parts of Türkiye.”

Summer crops such as maize and sunflowers are most affected. However, the report goes on to say that there have been generally favourable crop conditions elsewhere in Europe. Western and central Europe experienced mixed but stable yields, while above-average yields are expected in northern Europe.

Argentinian Taxes

Markets fell on Monday after Argentina announced a temporary pause on the export taxes of grains. This means that a 26% export tax on soybeans and 9.5% on corn and wheat have reduced to 0%.

This move comes as an economic crisis begins to hit Argentina, and hopes to increase grain exports to support the struggling economy.

Reuters report that China have taken advantage of the lower Argentinian soybean prices, which comes as another blow to US farmers, who typically see China as a major export market for soybeans.

Staying with South America, Brazil is forecast to increase soybean production by 3.6% to a total of 177.7m tonnes for the 2025/2026 season.

December Matif wheat had a bounce last week but fell on Friday to close at €190.75/t. The market fell again on Monday before recovering to €190.00/t on Wednesday morning,

Agritel report that “it remains difficult to imagine the emergence of a new dynamic in the current context” and that “the flow of information remains unpromising.”

French rapeseed for November was at €472/t on Wednesday morning, down from last week’s close of €473.25/t.

All prices quoted in this article are dried unless otherwise stated.