Tuesday 15 November marks a milestone in human development as the world’s population is projected to reach 8 billion people.

According to the United Nations, this unprecedented growth is due to the gradual increase in human lifespan as a result of improvements in public health, nutrition, personal hygiene and medicine and the persistent fertility levels in some countries.

While it took the global population 12 years to grow from 7 to 8 billion, it will take approximately 15 years - until 2037 - for it to reach 9 billion, as overall population growth rate is slowing.

Global population growth continues but is slowing down

The human population remained under 1 billion until 1800 and then took more than 100 years to grow from 1 to 2 billion.

Population growth in the last century has been very rapid by comparison. While continuing to grow, the pace of growth is now slowing.

Global population is projected to surpass 9 billion around 2037 and 10 billion around 2058 according to the United Nations.

India, with a population of 1.51 billion in 2031, is expected to overtake China as the most populous country of the world according to FAO OECD.

Global population size: estimated for 1700-2022 and projections for 2022-2100.

Population growth is increasingly concentrated in the poorest countries, most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa.

According to the United Nations, as the population grew from 7 to 8 billion, around 70% of the added population was in low-income (largely sub-Saharan Africa) and lower-middle-income countries.

When the next billion is added between 2022 and 2037, these two groups of countries are expected to account for more than 90% of global growth. A decline in the world’s population is not expected for another half century.

Global demographic change has implications for demand

Children and youth under the age of 25 accounted for most of the growth from 7 to 8 billion and will account for nearly half of the increase projected for low-income countries as the world grows from 8 to 9 billion.

By contrast, among low-middle-income countries, about two thirds of the growth is accounted for by adults between 25 and 64 years.

UN population projections suggest that in high-income (eg Europe, USA, Japan) and upper-middle-income countries (eg China, South Africa, Argentina, etc), the number of persons under the age of 65 will decline in the coming years and that growth will occur only in the population aged 65 years and over.

Global food consumption is projected to increase, albeit at a slower rate, in the next decade as a result of population growth, according to FAO OECD.

As such, much of the additional demand will come from low and middle income countries. Food demand in high-income countries, as in Europe, will be constrained by slow population growth and saturation in the per capita consumption of several food groups.

Growth in food has outpaced population

According to the United Nations, over the past 50 years the increase in global food production has outpaced population growth. It notes that while this was a profound achievement, it has come with high environmental costs.

Smart policies are needed throughout the food system to transition to sustainable practices that preserve biodiversity and support climate change mitigation, while ensuring access to safe, sufficient, affordable and nutritious food, according to the UN.