Fonterra Co-operative announced this week that it was cutting its forecast farmgate milk price range for the 2025/26 collection season.

The forecast range was narrowed from between NZ$9.00 and NZ$11.00/kg milk solids (€4.37-€5.34) to between NZ$9.00 and NZ$10.00, with the forecast midpoint reduced from NZ$10.00 to NZ$9.50 (€4.85 to €4.61).

The co-op also increased its forecast for milk collections by almost 1.5% to 1,545 million kgMS.

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CEO Miles Hurrell said that there have been strong milk flows in both New Zealand and other milk producing nations. He added that “this increase in milk supply has put downward pressure on global commodity prices, with seven consecutive price drops in recent Global Dairy Trade events.”

He added that the new midpoint price remains a strong forecast for the season.

According to DairyNZ’s Farm Economics tracker, the breakeven milk price for the 2025/26 season will be NZ$8.66 (€4.40) per kgMS, which would leave dairy farmers with a net margin of just under 10% for the coming year.

While Irish co-ops do not generally provide formal farmgate milk price forecasts, attendees at the recent Irish Farmers Journal Dairy Day heard that there are further corrections in milk price coming over the next few months.

Pat Murphy, CEO of Kerry Dairy Ireland said: “This is going to take a bit of pain over the next six months.”

Last month ifac warned that milk prices could fall below the cost of production on Irish dairy farms in 2026.