The US Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF) reports that US beef exports fell by 12% to 1.14m tonnes in 2025 compared with 2024, with value falling by 11% to $9.33bn (€7.9bn).
The main cause of this decline was the effective closing of China as a destination from the end of the first quarter of 2025.
High retaliatory tariffs were an initial impediment to trade, but the bigger issue has been China not renewing licenses for US beef processors to access the Chinese market.
For as long as this situation continues, that market will be effectively closed for US beef exports. The other major issue for US beef exports in 2025 was limited beef supply alongside strong domestic US demand.
Markets
Looking at the monthly export data, in December US beef exports reached their highest monthly total since April at 98,595 tonnes (t), but was still 10.5% lower than December 2024.
Again, the effective loss of China is the main explanation for the decline, though exports were slightly weaker to other main export markets as well.
Japan remained the top export market, taking 18,646t in December, similar to the previous December, and brings the 2025 total to 237,975t, which was 2% lower than the 2024 volume.
US beef exports to South Korea in December fell to 20,510t from 22,199t in December 2024. However, for the year overall, South Korea remained the second-largest export market for US beef at 232,175t, similar to 2024 volumes.
Last year, US beef achieved tariff-free entry to South Korea for the first time as the trade agreement from 2012 had come into full effect. Prior to the agreement, US beef was subject to a 40% tariff entering South Korea.
Despite a 10% decline in the volume exported to Mexico in 2025, it remained the next-most important export market for US beef, taking 209,094t last year, while the volume to China and Hong Kong was just over half what it was the previous year at 111,312t. Most of this had been exported in the first quarter.
EU and UK
While both the EU and UK are tiny in the context of overall US beef exports, they are important symbolically.
Market access for both is contentious, because neither accepts beef imports from cattle that have been given growth-promoting hormones.
As these are widely used in the US beef production system, most US beef is effectively excluded from the EU and UK markets.
The US has a tariff-free quota for 13,000t for the UK and 35,000t for the EU, but didn’t come anywhere close to filling either in 2025.
US beef exports to the EU totalled 11,340t last year, which was over 8% lower than the previous year, though volumes to the UK increased slightly to 2,389t.
Comment – US will be more an importer than exporter in 2026
With so little beef traded in either direction between European countries and the United States, there may be an inclination to dismiss what is happening there as of little interest.
However, despite the currently supply issues and relationship with China, the US remained the world’s third-largest beef exporter in 2025.
It is also the second-largest importer of beef, with volumes increasing last year to over 1.5m tonnes. This has an indirect impact on the market for Irish beef exports.
The less beef the US exports and the more it imports creates opportunities for Brazil and Australia, the other countries that export in excess of 1m tonnes annually.
That in turn makes them less inclined to export more volumes to the UK and EU, which are Ireland’s main beef export market.
However, even with this, both countries significantly increased export volumes to the UK last year and Brazil grew its exports to the EU even without the Mercosur trade deal being in place.
The US Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF) reports that US beef exports fell by 12% to 1.14m tonnes in 2025 compared with 2024, with value falling by 11% to $9.33bn (€7.9bn).
The main cause of this decline was the effective closing of China as a destination from the end of the first quarter of 2025.
High retaliatory tariffs were an initial impediment to trade, but the bigger issue has been China not renewing licenses for US beef processors to access the Chinese market.
For as long as this situation continues, that market will be effectively closed for US beef exports. The other major issue for US beef exports in 2025 was limited beef supply alongside strong domestic US demand.
Markets
Looking at the monthly export data, in December US beef exports reached their highest monthly total since April at 98,595 tonnes (t), but was still 10.5% lower than December 2024.
Again, the effective loss of China is the main explanation for the decline, though exports were slightly weaker to other main export markets as well.
Japan remained the top export market, taking 18,646t in December, similar to the previous December, and brings the 2025 total to 237,975t, which was 2% lower than the 2024 volume.
US beef exports to South Korea in December fell to 20,510t from 22,199t in December 2024. However, for the year overall, South Korea remained the second-largest export market for US beef at 232,175t, similar to 2024 volumes.
Last year, US beef achieved tariff-free entry to South Korea for the first time as the trade agreement from 2012 had come into full effect. Prior to the agreement, US beef was subject to a 40% tariff entering South Korea.
Despite a 10% decline in the volume exported to Mexico in 2025, it remained the next-most important export market for US beef, taking 209,094t last year, while the volume to China and Hong Kong was just over half what it was the previous year at 111,312t. Most of this had been exported in the first quarter.
EU and UK
While both the EU and UK are tiny in the context of overall US beef exports, they are important symbolically.
Market access for both is contentious, because neither accepts beef imports from cattle that have been given growth-promoting hormones.
As these are widely used in the US beef production system, most US beef is effectively excluded from the EU and UK markets.
The US has a tariff-free quota for 13,000t for the UK and 35,000t for the EU, but didn’t come anywhere close to filling either in 2025.
US beef exports to the EU totalled 11,340t last year, which was over 8% lower than the previous year, though volumes to the UK increased slightly to 2,389t.
Comment – US will be more an importer than exporter in 2026
With so little beef traded in either direction between European countries and the United States, there may be an inclination to dismiss what is happening there as of little interest.
However, despite the currently supply issues and relationship with China, the US remained the world’s third-largest beef exporter in 2025.
It is also the second-largest importer of beef, with volumes increasing last year to over 1.5m tonnes. This has an indirect impact on the market for Irish beef exports.
The less beef the US exports and the more it imports creates opportunities for Brazil and Australia, the other countries that export in excess of 1m tonnes annually.
That in turn makes them less inclined to export more volumes to the UK and EU, which are Ireland’s main beef export market.
However, even with this, both countries significantly increased export volumes to the UK last year and Brazil grew its exports to the EU even without the Mercosur trade deal being in place.
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