Emissions from Ireland’s agricultural sector are set to increase by 1.9% over the 2020-2030 period if existing climate measures are continued, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

The EPA says a methane emissions reduction of almost 30% is required to achieve a 22% reduction in agricultural emissions compared to 2018, as committed to in Government’s 2021 Climate Action Plan, released last November.

The environmental agency made the stark remarks as part of a set of emissions projections it published on Wednesday for all economic sectors.

On agriculture, the EPA called on the sector to “clearly set out” how a methane emissions reduction of almost 30% will be achieved. It said this clarity is required to “address uncertainty regarding [agriculture’s] ability to deliver even the lower end of the range of its sectoral targets within the ever-shortening timeframe to 2030”.

Emissions on the rise

Looking at all economic sectors, the EPA emissions projection data estimates that Ireland’s total greenhouse gas emissions increased by 6% in 2021.

The EPA said: “The data projects that all sectors need to do significantly more to meet their 2030 national emissions reduction targets. The challenge is particularly evident in the agriculture sector.”

I think at the moment, we’re talking the talk but we’re not walking the walk

Speaking on Wednesday, EPA director general Laura Burke said for the agricultural sector, “we really do need a transformation”.

“We are particularly concerned when we look at the agricultural sector in our report because there is an up to 30% reduction in methane required and the question is, how do we go about that?

“How do we move, change and transform our agriculture sector so that we’ve a thriving rural economy but also so we can live up to this clean green image of Ireland.

“I think at the moment, we’re talking the talk but we’re not walking the walk and we need to move from these ideas to actual implementation on the ground,” she said.

Efficiency

When asked if Irish farming is efficient and if this has a role in emissions reduction, Burke said: “I think we need to move away from the efficiency argument.”

She explained how for all sectors climate targets moved from reduce pollution, become more efficient and now to “transform”.

“So, efficiency doesn’t cut it. The environment doesn’t understand efficiency. What it understands is the total impact.”

She called on agricultural to move away from this “argument” and pointed out other environmental indicators such as water quality which reflect the sector’s impact.

The EPA head warned that “we are seeing continued increase and projected increase” in the national dairy herd but said that rather than getting into a “simplistic debate” about this, the sector needs to look more broadly at how it can transform using science, technology and research.

Burke said Ireland needs a “vibrant rural area” but insisted this has to be “done in a sustainable way”.

Energy

Increased coal use from 2021, as a result of unavailability of sufficient gas-fired generation to meet growing energy demand followed by changes in relative fuel price threatens to undo some of the good work done over recent years on reducing energy use emissions, according to the EPA.

The EPA said this increased coal use from 2021 will negatively impact the achievement of national targets, particularly for the first carbon budget period.

It's now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C

However, the agency said: “Despite this, increased renewable energy generation, if delivered as planned, can reduce energy industry emissions by 10% per annum from 2021-30, achieving up to 78% renewable electricity generation by 2030.”

EPA senior manager Stephen Treacy said: “The message from the authors of the recent IPCC report on climate mitigation was clear - it's now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

“Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible. In Ireland, implementation of measures has consistently lagged far behind planning. It is important that all planned actions are implemented as soon as possible while, in parallel, identifying actions to address the remaining gap to meet carbon budget limits.”